Below I will take the top 8 roster players production during the 11/12 season while they were in ideal roles or healthy. Then attempt to project what our offensive production could be next season. This could be either completely realistic or completely blurred with burgundy and blue glasses.
Players that under performed like Duchene, Stastny, & Jones will be given the benefit of the doubt and players like McGinn and Downie will be projected based on their production after they were traded. (Within reason)
With a glass half full approach could our roster with a few reasonable moves and some luck look like a legit playoff team?
(Hejduk is not figured into a top 9 role in this for next year and one UFA forward is used. Hey if he comes back flying, great. If not he will be some valuable secondary scoring on the 4th line and power play but I am not counting on anything.)
Matt Duchene : 38 vs 58 GP @ 28 points, .737 PPG%. 60.4 and 30G/30A over 82 games.
My argument for Duchene would be to evaluate and project him based on his point totals minus the 20 games he played injured and in a 3rd line role. My reason for not discounting the four or so points he put up in those 20 games is that we should probably expect some improvement on the pace he put up while healthy. Four more points isn't unreasonable and is hopefully conservative.
Paul Stastny : Jan, 6th - April, 7th / 40GP 31P .775 PPG%. @ 82GP 63.55
If I remember correctly that is around the time Jones was put back on his line then McGinn came along and there was another boost for the last 15 games or so as McGinn took a couple games to catch fire. In those last 15 games Stastny put up 12 PTS in 15 GP @ a .800 PPG% that is 66 PTS over 82 GP. Remember McGinn put up 13 points in 17GP (8G 5A).
David Jones : Jan, 6th - March, 4th 13PTS 25GP / / March, 6th - April, 7th 9 PTS (5G 4A) 15GP @ .600 PPG% 49.2 PTS (27G 22A) over 82 games.
This shows both when Jones was moved to Stastny's wing and when McGinn was put on their line. Along with the corresponding boosts in production. Feb, 4th through April, 7th was was his best production period @ 21 PTS (11G 9A) 29GP .724 PPG%. That is 31G & 28A over 82 GP.
4M for 27-31G / 22-28A & 49-59P? Yes please! Now we just need Sacco to figure this sh*t out and stop playing with his lines so much.
Peter Mueller : From Jan, 12th - 16P & 29GP @ .551 PPG% is 45.2 PTS (20G 25A)
To be fair to Mueller I removed the first 3 games of the year he played based on the fact that it was revealed he was still suffering from concussion symptoms. Honestly? 45 points over 82 games isn't to bad for 2.2 a year even if he does not improve. Realistically we can expect more from him next season as he will have a chance to go into the 12/13 season properly conditioned. Mueller could put up anywhere from 50 to 100+ points based on what we have seen him do while him and Duchene are both healthy. Lets stay on the low end and hope for 50 points (25G 25A).
Is he worth qualifying at around 2.2M? Hell yes
McGinn & Downie should be simple. I am just going to use their PPG% and then scale that back just a bit to a reasonable expectation.
Jamie McGinn : 8G 5A 17GP .765 PPG% (39G 24A) 63 PTS over 82 games.
If he does anything close to this he alone would have been worth WAY more than Galiardi & Winnik. Lets call it 30/20 and expect .610 PPG% instead of .765 PPG%. Still.. If he falls anywhere in between those two percentages he becomes a lock as a core player being a power forward and only 24 when next season starts. Hell as long as he gets a reasonable contract and puts up 20-30G and 20A I think we will all be happy campers.
McGinn almost feels like a drawing where you are either leaving with $100 or $1,000 after only giving up 10. San Jose will most likely be Sherminated in this deal.
Steve Downie : 13 PTS 20 GP .650 PPG% 53 PTS over 82 GP.
I am not removing the games most of us know he played with a shoulder injury because I think at that point he was at a point per game pace. Nope no way Downie is a 82 point player.. He did have a 2G 11A split but I think 20/20 is reasonable for him. He definitely had chances that he had a hard time burying after he had problems with his shoulder. You have to be impressed at the fact that he was even still somewhat effective as an agitator and checker after that.
Ok time to put it all together. (I am going to use an estimate and willy nilly figures for the Defense and 4th line because this is mostly about offense.)
McGinn (30G/20A/50P) - Stastny (22G/41A/63P) - Jones (27G/22A/49P) / 79G 83A 162P 1.975 PPG% .963 GPG
?UFA? (20G/20A/40P) - Duchene (30G/30A/60P) - Mueller (25G/25A/50P) / 75G 75A 150P 1.829 PPG% .904 GPG
Landeskog (30G/30A/60P) - O'Reilly (20G/40A/60P) - Downie (20G/20A/40P) / 70G 90A 160P 1.951 PPG% .854 GPG
Landeskog & O'Reilly were given modest 8 & 5 point bumps. Landeskog actually put up 11G 14A and 25P in 28 games to finish the year (Feb, 7th to April, 7th). That is a 32G 41A pace over 82 games at the toughest time of the year.Uh.. Wasn't this his rookie season or did I wake up a year later? Who does that as a rookie in the second half of the season when points are the hardest to come by? Ridiculous..
Hopefully that UFA does a little better than that and is either Semin or Parise but I used a modest total for what you would expect of a top 6 forward. Obviously depending on who the UFA is the lines could change accordingly.
The numbers for the top 9 come out at 224G 248A 2.70 Goals per game. I'll give the 4th line and defense a combined 30 goals since McClemment was able to put up 10 himself. Then 20 for the defenders.. Mind you this should be a modest number especially if we get a partner for EJ. Eight defenders put up 21 goals for us this year, that's everyone that played including Elliott (4G). As we know Barrie had two almost assists but nothing that stuck.
So 254G for the team in 82 games comes out to 3.06 Goals per game
So based on this logic (If you can call it that) we would rank 4th in offense against this years numbers. The only way this happens is if all three lines average somewhere close to 17 minutes per game. Leaving the 4th line with anywhere from 6-9 minutes per game. (Which is why I only counted them in for 10 goals.)
We know these players are most likely capable of this type of production. The question is can the roster come close to these numbers with the kind of splits in ice time it would require? I don't know but as optimistic as this is.. I don't think it's impossible.