How many points will it take to make it in, and when can a team realistically say they've been statistically eliminated?
I started by looking at how many points the 8th seed has scored each year since Lockout II. It looks like a team has to finish with about 1.15 standing points per game (so around a .575 record) in order to make the playoffs.
Based on this data, the lowest amount of points that might get you in is somewhere around 53 (based on a 91pt year) and the highest is 57 (based on the 97pt year). However, it's likely 55 points will be the cutoff.
As far as the Avs go, we're currently at 11GP with a 4-6-1 (9 points) record. If we need to get to 55, we'll need 46 more points, or a 23-14-0 record (.622). It's still hypothetically doable, but every loss eats into that last 14 we're allowed. At the rate our top players are being injured, I expect we'll realistically be out by around the 20th of March.