expanding on a prior fan post about how the Avs had certain tendencies when it came to drafting in the earlier rounds I decided to put together a list of players from the last 10 drafts that meet specific criteria.
1) All are forwards and all are from the CHL
2) Were not CHL rookies their draft year (have 2-3 years total in the CHL prior to being drafted as an 18 year old)
3) saw them put up around .65 PPG in the OHL/WHL their first full season OR around 1 PPG in the QMJHL the season prior to their draft year.
4) Improved noticeably from the previous season (no stagnate play or drop off)
Here is the list of players that fit the criteria and where they were drafted:
2013 draft: Mackinnon 1, Monahan 6, Domi 12, Shinkaruk 24, Clapperton 122
2012 draft: Yakupov 1, Galchenyuk 3, Sissons 50, Bourke 72, Hudon 122
2011 Draft: RNH 1, Landeskog 2, Couturier 8, Puempel 24, Rattie 32, Jenner 37, Trochek 64, St Croix 106
2010 Draft: Hall 1, Seguin 2, Connolly 6, Skinner 7, Hishon 17, Spooner 45, Toffoli 47, Weal 70, Sgarbossa
2009 Draft: Tavares 1, Duchene 3, E. Kane 4, Schenn 5, Glennie 8, Caron 25, O’Reilly 33, Cizikas 92, Varone 147
2008 Draft: Stamkos 1, Hodgson 10, Boychuk 14, Eberle 22, Wahl 48, Henrique 82, Moon 120
2007 Draft: Couture 9, B. Sutter 11, Repik 40, Mitchell 74
2006 Draft: Brassard 6, Little 12, Emmerton 41, Azevedo 153
2005 Draft: Crosby 1, B. Ryan 2, Brule 6, Latendresse 45, Durand 52, D. Ryder 74
2004 Draft: Wolski 21, Schremp 25
I'm not a huge fan of using a first or second round pick on a guy from the Q unless he is a high end talent or is talented but brings a great two-way/smart game to the table. Just too much risk but I have included the Q with the stricter requirements to limit the risk. Also this is just a review of items based around stats. If you were to add in Pracey's skill/character/compete you could really knock off a few of the riskier players. Any way you look at it, a large number of players that fit the requirements are hits especially with the new NHL favoring the younger faster and possibly smaller forwards. Makes you wonder if it may be best to for forward heavy in the first two rounds.
For fun, lets say we take all the 1st & 2nd round picks the Avs had from 2004 to 2013 and add a requirement to their picks. The requirement is that if a player they picked is NOT on the above list they must look to draft a player from the list IF it meets one of these parameters:
1) For a first round pick, a player on the list was drafted within 20 picks after
2) For a second round pick, a player on the list was drafted within 30 picks after
Because scouting isn't just stats and there may be issues holding a player back from being a good pro, but may not be an issue in the CHL, I am using the actual draft position of the players because someone like Azevedo (5'7") would not be taken in the earlier rounds no matter how good he is. And some drafts are just not forward or CHL heavy so you would have to look outside the CHL or trade the picks.
So how did the adjusted draft turn out?
The Avs still draft Wolski, Stastny, Stewart, Shattenkirk, Duchene, O'Reilly, Hishon, Landeskog, Mackinnon and Bigras.
The Avs end up picking up most notably Latendresse (Stoa), Henrique (Delmas), Toffoli (Pickard*), Puempel (Siemens) and Sissons (Heard).
They are close in range to possibly reach a little and take Cizikas (Elliott). Also the Toffoli pick was originally the Avs pick but became Pickard so he would have been available. Of the players that can be gauged (2004-2009 picks), NONE of the swaps resulted in a lost quality asset. Just looking at the change under Pracey shows how many players they took (forward wise) that came from the above list. Even Heard kind of fits the parameters except for the fact he was an older player when drafted.
It will be a few years before we can tell if Pracey would have benefited from going with a forward from the list that was within the "reach" of the Avs' D or G picks. But one thing is for certain... it looks like Pracey favors using the Avs first pick in the draft on a forward that fits the above requirements.