FanPost

The Final Word (updated with ROR signing!)

We're all sick of hearing about Ryan O'Reilly, right? Ryan's a greedy asshole, the Avs are cheap asses, etc., etc., etc. Well, ladies and gents, the data we need to call this one is finally here. I present to you the best freaking graph you've ever freaking seen on this topic.


Seriously. Look at it. It's all 87 non-trivial contracts RFA-year only forward contracts since the lost season, plotted with AAV as a percentage of that year's cap vs. the last three years of that player's NHL points per game. It's even got a gorgeous trend line to show NHL norms for a given level of points per game. No, people that signed contracts that eat UFA years aren't on it, because screw that noise it's a totally different discussion.

Ilvdzp5_medium

(http://i.imgur.com/ilvDzp5.png for the full size graph)

That graph speaks for itself, right? Sure, I know the PPG method is a little simplistic, ignoring possession and intangibles...but I say it's the best snapshot of a comprehensive comparison you're going to get, and closest to how this will actually be debated too.

Oh wait, you want to be babied and have me point out trends and interesting tidbits? FINE.

  • Ryan O'Reilly's contract demands are absurd. Ryan's first contract demand was the furthest from the established market since the lost season. Let that sink in for a second. Then realize the only thing crazier is that Jay Freaking Feaster actually met his demand. No wonder that guy was fired. Again.
  • The Avalanche offers, both now and two years ago, are well above NHL norms already. To the people calling the Avs cheap: you're just plain wrong. The sheer amount of comparables well below the Avs offer for the first dispute blew me away.
  • The NHL norm for a forward with O'Reilly's points per game is about 6.5% of the cap, or about 4.5m per year. In 2012, it was about 4.3%, or about 2.6m per year.
  • The comparable contracts the arbitration hearing should focus on are Giroux, Ryder, Couture, Krejci, and Gionta. All but Gionta are well below the arbitration minimum. All are well below O'Reilly's demands.
  • Gionta is the only semi-close comparable to O'Reilly's demands, and even then it's well below them. It also followed a crazy year in which Gionta averaged well over a point per game, which as might be expected skewed the contract significantly.
  • Outside the O'Reilly demands, the Lucic and Carter contracts were pretty nuts. Both are good players, but really managed to sell their upside or intangibles, I guess. Gerbe and Berglund should fire their agents.
  • As far as team trends go, it's interesting that some teams land well ahead and below the trend. In particular, Chicago's RFA signings were inflated.
  • Congrats to the Staal brothers on really marketing themselves well.

In closing, I think this graph really shows the Avs a way to make a great case at the arbitration hearing without burning bridges. If I was Sherman or Sakic, I'd talk to this graph, then highlight the close comparables I noted above.

"We love Ryan, he's a great player. His traditional statistics are excellent, especially for a player of his age. We acknowledge he brings a number of intangibles off the score sheet as well -- possession, defensive ability, and leadership. As such, we have adjusted our offers -- both now and in the last dispute that set this lower limit upon his compensation -- upwards from what traditional statistical comparables would dictate is fair."

"But Ryan's demands are completely out of line with the market and statistical comparables. The data speaks for itself, Ryan wants well beyond what the market has determined is fair to both sides. Do not reward his unreasonable and unfounded demands. Make this result as fair as possible to both sides and award Ryan our requested salary."

And then Avs, you trade him. A player that employs such scorched earth negotiation policies as these, that damage the ability to contend for his team...it cannot be tolerated. Nor can he be allowed to walk for nothing, or the talent level of the team will be hamstrung.

Winnipeg has several examples of overpaid FAs already, and has a dire need at center to go with a similarly talented and troubled player to exchange in Evander Kane.

Make it happen Avs.


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