FanPost

Draft Percentages: Success in the NHL

Bruce Bennett

I saw a question in the ROR thread about the probability that a draft pick will make the NHL. Since I already did some research on this, I thought I'd share.

I classified a draft pick as a success upon playing 164 games (a full two seasons) for a skater and 123 games (1.5 seasons) for a goalie. Just in case it is not completely clear, the first column is the draft year and the top row is the range of draft positions. I selected the ranges I did, instead of rounds, because the number of players in each round has varied throughout the years and the second round, in particular, is just really fucked up.(do fanposts count toward the annual swearing survey?). Enjoy!

Year 1-5 1-10 1-30 31-60 61-90 91-120 120+ All
2006 100.00% 100.00% 66.67% 30.00% 13.33% 6.67% 5.38% 17.37%
2005 100.00% 90.00% 63.33% 26.67% 16.67% 20.00% 9.09% 20.87%
2004 100.00% 60.00% 63.33% 20.00% 30.00% 23.33% 11.11% 20.62%
2003 100.00% 100.00% 93.33% 26.67% 30.00% 6.67% 12.21% 23.29%
2002 100.00% 90.00% 73.33% 26.67% 20.00% 13.33% 6.40% 17.47%
2001 100.00% 70.00% 76.67% 30.00% 16.67% 20.00% 13.61% 22.15%
2000 100.00% 60.00% 60.00% 33.33% 13.33% 6.67% 7.51% 16.04%
1999 80.00% 80.00% 46.67% 23.33% 20.00% 23.33% 8.55% 17.28%
1998 100.00% 100.00% 76.67% 26.67% 36.67% 20.00% 9.42% 24.03%
1997 100.00% 90.00% 50.00% 10.00% 23.33% 6.67% 14.29% 18.70%
1996 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 23.33% 23.33% 13.33% 14.05% 21.99%
1995 100.00% 80.00% 63.33% 26.67% 20.00% 16.67% 12.28% 22.22%
Average 96.67% 82.50% 66.11% 25.28% 21.94% 14.72% 10.32% 20.17%

(Moved from the Draft Percentages - Round 2 post)

Here are the second round numbers broken out. I have added the end of the first and the beginning of the third round for reference. The important trend here, I think, is that high second round picks produced fewer hockey players than high third round, or late second round, picks during these 12 drafts. Remember that this is a small sample size, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Year 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65
2006 20.00% 20.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
2005 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% 80.00% 0.00% 40.00% 0.00% 20.00%
2004 80.00% 20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 40.00% 40.00%
2003 80.00% 20.00% 40.00% 20.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 60.00%
2002 20.00% 0.00% 60.00% 40.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 40.00%
2001 40.00% 20.00% 40.00% 0.00% 60.00% 20.00% 40.00% 20.00%
2000 80.00% 40.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 40.00% 20.00% 20.00%
1999 20.00% 0.00% 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% 40.00% 20.00% 20.00%
1998 60.00% 60.00% 20.00% 60.00% 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 60.00%
1997 20.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1996 60.00% 20.00% 20.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 40.00% 40.00%
1995 20.00% 40.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%
Averages 45.00% 23.33% 28.33% 33.33% 23.33% 25.00% 23.33% 28.33%

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