I saw a question in the ROR thread about the probability that a draft pick will make the NHL. Since I already did some research on this, I thought I'd share.
I classified a draft pick as a success upon playing 164 games (a full two seasons) for a skater and 123 games (1.5 seasons) for a goalie. Just in case it is not completely clear, the first column is the draft year and the top row is the range of draft positions. I selected the ranges I did, instead of rounds, because the number of players in each round has varied throughout the years and the second round, in particular, is just really fucked up.(do fanposts count toward the annual swearing survey?). Enjoy!
Year | 1-5 | 1-10 | 1-30 | 31-60 | 61-90 | 91-120 | 120+ | All |
2006 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 66.67% | 30.00% | 13.33% | 6.67% | 5.38% | 17.37% |
2005 | 100.00% | 90.00% | 63.33% | 26.67% | 16.67% | 20.00% | 9.09% | 20.87% |
2004 | 100.00% | 60.00% | 63.33% | 20.00% | 30.00% | 23.33% | 11.11% | 20.62% |
2003 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 93.33% | 26.67% | 30.00% | 6.67% | 12.21% | 23.29% |
2002 | 100.00% | 90.00% | 73.33% | 26.67% | 20.00% | 13.33% | 6.40% | 17.47% |
2001 | 100.00% | 70.00% | 76.67% | 30.00% | 16.67% | 20.00% | 13.61% | 22.15% |
2000 | 100.00% | 60.00% | 60.00% | 33.33% | 13.33% | 6.67% | 7.51% | 16.04% |
1999 | 80.00% | 80.00% | 46.67% | 23.33% | 20.00% | 23.33% | 8.55% | 17.28% |
1998 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 76.67% | 26.67% | 36.67% | 20.00% | 9.42% | 24.03% |
1997 | 100.00% | 90.00% | 50.00% | 10.00% | 23.33% | 6.67% | 14.29% | 18.70% |
1996 | 80.00% | 70.00% | 60.00% | 23.33% | 23.33% | 13.33% | 14.05% | 21.99% |
1995 | 100.00% | 80.00% | 63.33% | 26.67% | 20.00% | 16.67% | 12.28% | 22.22% |
Average | 96.67% | 82.50% | 66.11% | 25.28% | 21.94% | 14.72% | 10.32% | 20.17% |
(Moved from the Draft Percentages - Round 2 post)
Here are the second round numbers broken out. I have added the end of the first and the beginning of the third round for reference. The important trend here, I think, is that high second round picks produced fewer hockey players than high third round, or late second round, picks during these 12 drafts. Remember that this is a small sample size, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Year | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40 | 41-45 | 46-50 | 51-55 | 56-60 | 61-65 |
2006 | 20.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% |
2005 | 40.00% | 40.00% | 0.00% | 80.00% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% |
2004 | 80.00% | 20.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% |
2003 | 80.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 60.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 60.00% |
2002 | 20.00% | 0.00% | 60.00% | 40.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% |
2001 | 40.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 0.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% |
2000 | 80.00% | 40.00% | 60.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% |
1999 | 20.00% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% |
1998 | 60.00% | 60.00% | 20.00% | 60.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% | 60.00% |
1997 | 20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
1996 | 60.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% |
1995 | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 0.00% |
Averages | 45.00% | 23.33% | 28.33% | 33.33% | 23.33% | 25.00% | 23.33% | 28.33% |