As fans we tend to have skewed values about our own prospects, either dismissing them because they don't live up to wild expectations or falling in love with flawed players with good personalities and a few clutch goals on their resumes. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, guys in our system are pretty close to what most teams have in their systems and have little trade value other than balancing out abundances and needs with other clubs.
The Avs have 12 prospects with contracts expiring after the season and considering the hole they've been in with 49 total this season, it's logical to assume that we start with just 11 up for grabs. Chris Bigras and Spencer Martin are already signed and I'm going to flip right the fuck out if Mason Geertsen doesn't get one. Down to 8 already, now let's look at who would like to have one of those:
UFAs
Karl Stollery - 27 year old D in only his 3rd pro year. He plays the 2-way role on the top pair in Lake Erie and has 7 NHL games under his belt with the Avs. On a team with lots of young and/or offensive D, he's almost a necessity to have around.
Bruno Gervais - Captain of the Monsters but barely viable as a 3rd pairing guy when the team is healthy. I'd be very surprised if he returns.
RFAs
Tomas Vincour - Struggled with injury all year and hasn't found the form he showed a couple years ago. Not a prime candidate to stick around.
Stefan Elliott - Signed a show-me deal last summer and for my money has done what was asked. Top pair in LE, AHL All-Star, now playing with the Avs. If the Avs aren't going to keep him, other teams will definitely be interested.
Paul Carey - Like Elliott, signed a show-me deal last summer and has also shown improvement and continued development this season. Has value as a top-line AHL vet and NHL depth forward.
Joey Hishon - The third of the show-me contracts from last summer, Hishon has shown the usual flashes of talent but also disappears for long stretches. To be brutally honest, I don't see much development in his game. He's basically the same player he was when he turned pro and that can't impress the Avs much. If he's going to get better, it's probably going to be somewhere else. The upside there is some other team might see value and be willing to give up something for the opportunity.
Calvin Pickard - A stone cold lock to get re-signed, Picks has grown exponentially this season. He's an excellent AHL goalie and looks promising so far at the NHL level. If he showed this talent level as a skater he would have quite a bit of value, but as a goalie he's one of many in the same boat and doesn't have much other teams don't already have too. His worth to the Avs greatly exceeds what he would bring back.
Sami Aittokallio - At times last year was at or above Pickard's level of development but has fallen off a cliff somehow. The Avs seem to have no interest for whatever reasons and he's all but guaranteed not to receive another contract. The fact that he's been showcased in the NHL a few times might generate some interest from other clubs.
Andrew Agozzino - Alternate Captain in Lake Erie and slowly creeping closer to all-time scoring records there. One game with the Avs, one point. Not bad. I'd be very surprised if he wasn't re-signed.
Mike Sgarbossa - Before the season I would have said he had no chance of returning, but he's bounced back with a good year developmentally while also playing a 3 game stretch in Colorado. He's put the Avs in the situation where they have a decision to make and given there are no prospect forwards turning pro this year I'd say he sticks around for another year at least.
Mitchell Heard - Perhaps the most hated Avalanche draft pick of the last decade, Mitch had a terrible training camp and was banished to Ft Wayne for what I assumed to be the rest of his Avs tenure. He turned into the Komets leading scorer and gained a boatload of confidence and found his way back to Cleveland. He's been a solid 2-way bottom-6 center ever since. It astonishes me to say I think he has a chance to be back next year.
Markus Lauridsen - A fairly solid defenseman for Lake Erie all year, Moose could end up being a victim of numbers this summer with Bigras and Geertsen turning pro.
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So the Avs have some decisions to make, if they can come to some conclusions before the deadline they might include some of these fellows to balance out some NHL trades. If not, it's no problem trading prospects after the deadline, the Gaunce-Vincour swap occured in early April a couple years ago.
By my count, at least 4 of the guys listed above won't be back next year and that doesn't take into account the possible signings of undrafted FAs from college, juniors or Europe. There are also one or two players signed to LEM contracts that might be candidates for an NHL deal. On the other hand it also doesn't take into account possible NHL-level trades perhaps opening up a spot or two. It's both happy and sad to see the org getting rid of decent players rather than just dead weight for a change.
But do they have value?
We're trying to leverage assets these days. Talent matters but so does salary and RFA status. A great team has players that produce at a higher level than their salary and the easiest way to get that is from cost-controlled prospects in the lineup. The leverage comes from the difference in salary between a prospect and a vet/UFA producing at the same level. Something the Avs really need to figure out one of these days.
The only prospects above with significant NHL playing time are Elliott, Pickard and Vincour (I'm not counting Gervais because no one would ever think of trading for him). Elliott apparently has "good possession numbers" and people that don't watch him regularly seem to think he would be good value for an organization. I would prefer to keep him in the org, but given the logjam at right D and his expected role he's probably the best hope to get something of value back in a trade. Pickard might tempt a few clubs, but replacing him would cost the same or more and the Avs would lose his potential upside. That would be a very foolish move to make. Vincour is marginal at best, I hate that Dater was right when he said "it doesn't matter, he wasn't making the team anyway", but he was.
Of the other guys, Carey and Stollery are the closest to the NHL level but there are similar players available every summer. The rest are either projects or still very young until you get to Hishon and Aittokallio.
Sami's started 2 NHL games but never finished one. I guess in a world where people trade for Reto Berra there are teams desperate enough to want to acquire unproven talent like that, but it's unlikely.
Hishon, as he's been his whole career it seems, is a special case. An off-the-board 1st round pick with obvious talent and an extremely frustrating lack of consistency and development, he could be attractive to a rebuilding team that believes they can eventually get the most out of his game.
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Whatever the Avs end up doing, I hope they try to get something out of a few of these fellows that won't be with us next year. The Maple Leafs just traded a couple of AHL lifers for a 7th round pick. Big deal, right? It could be and it's better than nothing. Julien Nantel was a 7th round pick last summer and I'd definitely take him over nothing. If the Avs are going to move on from players with value like Elliott, Hishon, or even Vincour and Aittokallio, it makes sense to get something for them, even if it's just a tryout for an AHL depth player. Every bit helps.