As the trade deadline approaches, fans of every team realistically out of the playoff race are clamoring to sell off their spare parts in exchange for draft picks to help build a better future in which their team eventually becomes the trade deadline buyer. One of the most common thoughts is to sell off that pesky third-liner or mediocre defenseman for the ever-desirable "late first round draft pick". Here at MHH, there have been plenty of discussions about this mythical creature known as the "late first" so let's get all Discovery Channel and see if we can't bust a myth.
For the sake of hopefully avoiding drawn out arguments over semantics, I'm breaking down the first round into 3 sections: Early, mid, and late. Early is draft slots 1-10, mid is 11-20, and late is 21-30. Simple enough. Now, using the standings at the time of this writing (afternoon of Feb 19), we can see the final 10 picks will belong to these teams:
Now, after looking at the trades that have already been made, the only teams that have late first round picks even available to trade are:
- Montreal
- Tampa Bay (x2 because they own the Rangers 1st rounder)
- Anaheim
- Chicago
- Detroit
All of the other teams on the list have already traded away their first round picks for 2015 and the teams they were traded to, excluding Tampa Bay, are: Toronto, Edmonton, Buffalo (x2, the lowest of which will be sent to Winnipeg). Those are rebuilding teams who aren't looking to trade first rounders away. Those are building blocks for the beaten down franchises.
Using the list above of potentially tradeable picks, let's break down what each team has been linked to as the deadline approaches.
Montreal
As will become a common theme on this list, the Canadiens are dealing with some injury issues and are looking to shore up depth as they continue battling Tampa Bay for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. It's been quoted in several places by the hockey media overlords that the Canadiens and they're looking to come out of the deadline with a forward and a defenseman and they aren't terribly interested in rentals.
In regards to the Avalanche, and prepare for this to be another common theme, unless the deal starts with Ryan O'Reilly or another enticing package that we aren't aware the team is in the process of building, this is a total no go in terms of fit. Were Bergevin more interested in a rental, we might be able to talk him into taking back Danny Briere, in the process hopefully re-acquiring the 5th we gave them, just to make that deal even worse so Jibbles can keep fighting with me on Twitter about it.
Tampa Bay
Another team with injury issues, the Lightning are looking to shore up the bottom of their blueline. This is where you hope you can sell Jan Hejda to a team because the pick currently sits at #26, which is late even for late firsts, and because the bigger names on the market are all guys who are likely to cost picks, prospects, and big UFA money.
With Tampa Bay as deep as they are in their farm system, the Avs should look to sell them on copying the Paul Gaustad deal from 2012 - Package a 4th rounder with Hejda and receive the later of Tampa Bay's 2 first rounders and wish Hejda the best of luck as he lands in a situation to give him the best shot at a Cup run in his career. If Tampa re-signs him, great for all parties involved. If Tampa doesn't, they still have a first rounder to use and they took a swing on a reliable veteran on at the deadline. The obvious downside of dealing with Tampa Bay is Steve Yzerman has shown himself to be a very good GM and probably wouldn't do this. Eff you, Yzerman. Sakic for life.
Anaheim
The Ducks were a natural fit here even before Sami Vatanen and Matt Belesky suffered several week injuries. While I can't imagine the Ducks are interested in adding Danny Briere or any of our other available forwards, it does make sense for them to pursue Jan Hejda. Even before Vatanen was hurt, the Ducks were involved in every single defenseman rumor you could get your hands on, most notably the day the Hockey Twitter was convinced Tyler Myers was being traded there. That obviously didn't happen and here we are.
Currently sitting with the 25th pick of the first round, would Anaheim try to correct their hilarious Clayton Stoner mistake by making a second overpayment to secure the services of Hejda? Anaheim's Stanley Cup window is kind of wonky because they're driven so heavily by one line, a solid group of defenders, and elite young talents in net but....by most all metrics should be a team right in the middle of the pack instead of leading it. How badly does the team want to GO FOR IT this year? I would say this is a team where the fit makes plenty of sense but the urgency of the deal does not.
Chicago
The Blackhawks, long one of the league's deepest teams, have run into a bit of a problem on their blue line this season as they've rotated in a handful of "meh" guys to try and stabilize their third pairing. Inspired names like David Rundbland, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Tim Erixon, Klas Dahlbeck, and old friend Kyle Cumiskey (long live "Cummers"!) have rotated in with the aging and increasingly ineffective Michal Roszival to provide the Chicago blue line the kind of thrills Avs fans get to see every night.
Already rumored to be interested in another aging and ineffective guy in Scott Hannan, should the Avs choose to dance with the devil in the pale moonlight and deal with the Blackhawks, they should absolutely maximize the opportunity and walk out with a first round pick in exchange for Jan Hejda. Hejda is certainly aging but has been quite effective this season and would probably not re-sign after this season because Chicago has no money so the sick feeling of watching our guy play in Chicago during a playoff run would be over relatively quickly. I like this fit but again, not sure the team is in such a WIN NOW AT ALL COSTS that they'd do something like this.
Detroit
Ahhhhh, yes. The good old friend from the glory days of blood and guts, where concussions were merely bells rung and face re-arrangement was just another Game 6. /pause for happy memories /unpause The Red Wings remain a Stanley Cup contender, largely on the back of their obscene late-round drafting and their rumored interest in basically every defenseman on the market is certainly no accident. While Lord of the Leap Niklas Kronwall still patrols their blue line with as much jumpy ebullience as ever, his supporting cast has deteriorated over the years as the team was so desperate for anybody to say yes to them last off-season that they even gave Kyle Quincey a raise. Hahaha. That said, they're still in the Stanley Cup conversation because Mike Babcock's witchcraft knows no bounds and the trade deadline is when Ken Holland wields his own personal brand of sorcery to give a first round pick away and get something of value in return.
With an aging core and Babcock potentially in his final year at the helm, I think the urgency of trading a first rounder for a guy like...you guessed it...Jan Hejda would actually make some real sense. In that last 10 years, Detroit has only picked in the first round six times...and I'll generously call the results a "mixed bag". They do their damage after the first anyway so I could see a world where Ken Holland lights fire to another first rounder just to once again prove it's his world and we're all just living in it.
Final Verdict:
The chances are slim, Avs fans, that the Avs would be able to acquire this mythical creature known as the "late first". While rumored to always be available, this beast very likely requires more ammunition than the Avs are packing in order to come into contact with it. Still, the NHL is full of GMs who do notoriously dumb shit when the pressure is on and the deadline is staring them dead in the face, especially when you're playing Kyle Quincey and his tried-and-true matadorian defensive philosophy 19 minutes a night. The endgame for this trade deadline is that unless the Avalanche find the right package (huehue) involving Ryan O'Reilly, it's very unlikely the team picks more than once in the upcoming draft's first round.
(Author's note: BUF effed this up by throwing their name into the O'Reilly ring again with their final remaining late first being the only piece as listed as available. Sigh)