Welcome to part two of our in-depth look at young, left-handed, Top 4 defensemen across the league. In case you missed it, Western Conference defensemen were discussed yesterday, so without any ado, let's look at the East.
Buffalo
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Nikita Zadorov | 19 | 6'-5'' | 220 | #16 Overall 2013 | 41 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 19:12 | 0.894 | 2 |
Might as well start with the obvious one first. This is Nikita Zadorov. When he's not being a Russian enigmatic, immature, cocky sleepyhead, he's a 6'-5" teenager with strong skating and a physical game. His shooting and passing are also noteworthy, and he's working on his positioning and stick-work in the defensive zone this year. He is still VERY raw, and due to some KHL/CHL player rights issues, he couldn't be sent back to Juniors where he probably belonged, but luckily for him, Buffalo's blueline is such a tirefire he found a spot. He'll be AHL eligible next year, but if he is traded to the Avs and sticks in the NHL lineup, be ready for a young player who makes young player mistakes with the occasional spot of brilliance.
Buffalo Trade Probability: Let's put it this way:
LeBrun, on Ryan O'Reilly: "I could tell you one team that would love to get their hands on him, and that's the Buffalo Sabres. They won't be alone. There's going to be a long list of teams if and when the Avalanche really put this guy in play. Now with the Avs falling out of the playoff race, one would think that would probably wait until the summer. But we know one thing about Tim Murray in Buffalo. He showed it in the Evander Kane deal. He's not scared to go after something and make a gigantic deal. And I'm told that other first round pick, the low pick, he's willing to throw that in in a package for Ryan O'Reilly if the time comes in the off-season."
so, yes, I'd say there's a possibility Buffalo might be interested in trading with the Colorado Avalanche. Keep in mind that Zadorov was a first round pick under the previous Sabres' management, so he, the late first, and perhaps a forward like Grigorenko could be included. Just how many immaturity headaches the Avs want to deal with in exchange for O'Reilly remains to be seen, but Buffalo is a very realistic trade partner this summer.
Columbus
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Ryan Murray | 21 | 6'-1'' | 208 | #2 Overall 2012 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18:26 | 0.894 | 1 | |
Jack Johnson | 28 | 6'-1'' | 238 | #3 Overall 2005 | 52 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 23:55 | 4.357 | 3 |
This is the part of the article where I'm about to get yelled at for two very different reasons. First of all, yes, I am aware that the Avs have a very, very slim chance of acquiring 2012's second overall pick, Ryan Murray. Columbus' GM passed up the Islanders' entire draft board for a chance to draft the all-around blueliner in 2012, so the chances of Colorado acquiring him for anything less than MacKinnon seems pretty slim. However, his vision, puck moving, and confident defensive play, especially for someone so young, would be exactly what our team needs. He's suffered multiple injury set-backs, including a shoulder injury in '13, a knee injury that sidelined him last year and most of this season, and now a high ankle sprain that will have him out for a few more weeks. Even so, I doubt the Jackets give up on him easily.
And then there's Jack Johnson. Only two current players have a worse career +/- than the former US Olympian's -113, and he's never had a positive relative Corsi season. In his defense, he does draw a lot of the defensive zone starts for his team against fairly difficult competition, but he's still very much a possession passenger. However, what he lacks in defense he brings in offense and physicality. If utilized in the proper way (such as with Tyson Barrie, not Erik Johnson), he would probably help the Avs, but there are probably better options out there than the 28-year-old.
Honorable Mention: CBJ lucked out when they snagged Kevin Connauton off waivers earlier this year. The 24-year-old is known for his skating, big shot, and poise with the puck. He's been logging big minutes for the injury-depleted Jackets this year, but he's likely more of a 4/5 power play specialist on a strong team. I felt he didn't have quite the upside the Avs would need.
Columbus Trading Probability: It's hard to get a read on the Blue Jackets because they've been so injured this year. They have a solid young group of players coming up through the ranks, so it's possible they'd like O'Reilly to go with Ryan Johansen and Boone Jenner. However, I can't see them giving up Murray for anything less than Duchene or MacKinnon, and our blueline needs defense/higher possession more than additional scoring so Jack Johnson is out as well. I just don't see them as the right trade partner to help our defense.
Detroit
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Danny DeKeyser | 24 | 6'-3'' | 191 | Undrafted | 54 | 2 | 19 | 21 | 21:16 | 2.188 | 1 |
For the record, I do feel slightly dirty for suggesting this, but another player the Avs should keep in mind is 24-year-old Danny DeKeyser. He has red wing stank all over him, but he's an intelligent, tenacious, mobile blueliner that's competent in all three zones. He keeps his game simple and is working on improving his offensive, but he's already carved out quite the niche for himself on the wing's blueline. If he came to the Avs, I have a feeling that his reliable play next to Erik Johnson would eventually allow me to forgive him for intentionally choosing the Dark Side, even if it would take a long time to air out the smell.
Detroit Trade Probability: To my knowledge, the Avs and red wings have never directly traded. They were involved in an uncomfortable three-way deal with a Tampa Bay middleman in 2012, but the two have never signed on the dotted line themselves. Detroit is also hurting for defense, so I doubt they'd move the anchor of their 2nd pairing and their hope for the future unless another top defensemen was on the way back. However, there has been some speculation that right-handed defensemen like Stefan Elliott (and Zach Redmond, I'd imagine) might make sense for filling out their defensive corps, and O'Reilly would likely shine in their puck possession system. Maybe there's a fit, but I doubt DeKeyser is on the table.
Florida
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Dmitry Kulikov | 24 | 6'-1'' | 204 | #14 Overall 2009 | 49 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 21:50 | 4.33 | 2 |
This is not the first time Dmitry Kulikov's name has come up in Avalanche trade speculation. The young blueliner has great skating, good vision, and a nice offensive pop to his game, but defensive miscues resulted in a healthy scratch in late 2013. Since that point, he's made huge strides in fixing that portion of his game, putting up pretty decent possession numbers despite some tough usage. He's 24 with room to grow, and now that his defensive play is no longer a huge question mark, chances are good he'd look just fine across from Erik Johnson.
Florida Trade Probability: The Panthers are stacked with defensive right-hand shots like Gudbranson and Ekblad, but they're a bit weaker on the left. If they care about handedness, Kulikov is probably an important part of their future. However, talent-wise, he's below the other two on the depth chart. The Avs have reportedly expressed interest in him in the past, but it's all a matter of finding the right deal. How badly would the Panthers want O'Reilly to add to their young core of Barkov, Bjugstad, and Huberdeau? Or would our first round pick this year be more up their alley? If a fit can be found, Kulikov would be a nice addition to our team.
Montreal
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Jarred Tinordi | 22 | 6'-6'' | 225 | #22 Overall 2010 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12:00 | 0.914 QUAL | RFA | |
Nathan Beaulieu | 22 | 6'-2'' | 194 | #17 Overall 2011 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15:21 | 0.971 QUAL | RFA |
If these two names look familiar, it's probably because you read this week's 30 Thoughts, #28 and 29. Let's start with the first one mentioned, Nathan Beaulieu. He's an offensive defenseman with some decent size who brings excellent speed, vision, passing, and puck handling. However, he's not what you'd exactly call all that defensive and gets caught puck chasing or watching from time to time, which leads to a large number of minor penalties. He played as a left wing earlier this year, and he projects to be around a #3 or #4 power play-type defenseman. Essentially, I think he's closer to a Barrie-type player than someone who would complement a Barrie-type player. Would he be great to have? Sure. Is he worth sacrificing a big trade chip to do so? Eh, probably not.
Another decent but not spectacular fit is Jarred Tinordi. He's a big defensive defenseman with good mobility and the ability to rush the puck up the ice. He'll fight, but he takes few penalties otherwise. However, he'll never bring much offensively, and his statistics from last year indicated that he's not very good at clearing the zone and often turns the puck over. At 22, both he and Beaulieu have room to grow their games, but neither are probably ideal fits for the Avs right now.
Honorable Mention: Alexei Emelin's name has come up in some trade talks, so he should probably be addressed. He's a 28-year-old physical stay-at-home defensemen, but he has very poor possession numbers, very limited offensive upside, has become a defensive liability, and probably shouldn't be played above the 3rd pair. He's also making $4.1 million for the next three years. If we trade for him, I will be VERY upset. He's a guy with Stuart potential written all over him. No thank you.
Montreal Trade Probability: Montreal has been named as one of the possible suitors for O'Reilly, so I even though I'm not overly thrilled by any of theses defensemen, I decided to leave them on the list. Like I mentioned above, I don't see any of them as a very good fit for the Colorado Avalanche unless Sakic/Roy feel these blueliners have large amounts of room to grow their game.
New Jersey
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Jon Merrill | 22 | 6'-3'' | 205 | #38 Overall 2010 | 43 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 21:24 | 0.84 | 1 |
New Jersey's Jon Merrill is a dark horse candidate with some interesting potential. I doubt he'd be the cornerstone of any O'Reilly deal, but he might be a decent pot sweetener. His 21-year-old rookie season saw him log over 19 minutes a game on average, and that number has already increased to over 21 this year. With that said, his possession stats and play on both ends of the ice currently leave much to be desired, and his development has somewhat stalled. Perhaps it's because he's being asked to play on the right side, and it could just be the case of a sophomore slump, but if New Jersey decides that they want to stick with some of their other young defensemen instead (such as righties Severson and Larsson), the poised, hyped defenseman Merrill could be on the move.
New Jersey Trade Probability: Like I said, I Merrill isn't likely to be the cornerstone in an O'Reilly deal. But if New Jersey were to include him with someone like Henrique, things become much more interesting. He'd probably fit as a partner for Tyson Barrie here, but long term? It sounds like he may have just as much potential to move up to Erik Johnson's pairing as max out as a 3rd pairing guy on any decent team. He's a risk, but risks drive prices down. It all depends on how much upside Avs scouts see in the former 14-year-old commit to the University of Michigan.
New York Islanders
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Nick Leddy | 23 | 6'-0'' | 194 | #16 Overall 2009 | 58 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 20:08 | 5.5 | 7 | |
Calvin de Haan | 23 | 6'-1'' | 193 | #12 Overall 2009 | 49 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 19:26 | 1.967 | 2 | |
Griffin Reinhart | 21 | 6'-4'' | 217 | #4 Overall 2012 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14:08 | 0.863 | 2 |
I'm sorry, AJ, but this is making me hate the Islanders. At the very least, they should feel bad for not sharing this many good, young defensemen with the rest of the league. Let's start at the top with Nick Leddy. The 23-year-old just recently signed a 7 year contract extension after establishing himself as a top pairing defenseman. Basically, he does all the little things right and is just about perfect for us in every way, which is why we're never going to be able to trade for him. He does get a ton of offensive zone starts while the rest of the corps covers for him, but that's a fairly common setup for good teams to use. The Avs were supposedly in on him last summer, and he'd probably not look quite as good back in defensive zone hell with EJ, but he's a very good, young defenseman and will be for a very long time.
On the other hand, one of the Islanders we may have half a chance at is Calvin de Haan. He's another 2009 draft pick (the their fetish with that draft year surpasses even our own), but he's a very solid, fast defenseman with a great first pass, good positioning, excellent vision, and high hockey IQ. He doesn't bring much goal scoring, but he also faces tougher competition with more moderate zone starts than Leddy, so usage-wise, he's a closer fit for what we need. However, he is injury prone, and has only broken the 60 game mark once during an OHL year. He'll probably make it there this year, but he did miss games earlier this month from a skate to the face. The guy can't catch a break, but when healthy, I think he'd be a great addition to the Avs.
Next, you have the baby of the bunch, Griffin Reinhart. Beyond having an awesome, medieval sounding name, the 4th Overall pick from 2012 has great poise, good passing, and solid defensive instincts. His skating and scoring are perhaps not quite there, but he was also the #1 defenseman on WHL's top possession team last year and had very good numbers defensively. This year, he played 8 games before de Haan came back from injury, so he's currently in the AHL. He's probably not quite NHL ready, but he's certainly on his way and has a ton of upside.
Honorable Mention: Thomas Hickey is another name that came up in my research. He has the draft pedigree - #4 Overall in 2007 - but he's smaller, more offensively oriented, and was picked up off waivers. LA's GM at the time overvalued the leadership he brought to the ice, but his talent never improved to the point where he cracked the Kings' roster. Since his move to Long Island, he's settled into a 3rd pairing role, but I'm doubtful he has the upside we'd need.
Islanders Trade Probability: If there was one team that could stand the loss of one of its top, young, left-handed defensemen, it'd be the Islanders. Of the group, I think De Haan is the most realistic acquisition. Leddy's not going anywhere with that shiny new contract, and Reinhart is still in the AHL nearly ready to full up when needed. If De Haan can stay healthy and the Islanders were willing to move him for someone like O'Reilly, I think he'd be a decent fit for the Avs moving forward. He may not have quite the shut-down ability of some of the other players on the list, but from a pure trade potential side, I think he has some promise.
New York Rangers
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Marc Staal | 28 | 6'-4'' | 207 | #12 Overall 2005 | 55 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 21:39 | 5.7 | 6 |
As the only Staal brother Carolina hasn't already collected, Marc Staal is one of the oldest, most expensive, and most stable defensemen on the list. He's never quite offensively lived up to his 2-way billing - his NHL career high in goals is 8 - but if you're looking for a reliable shut-down guy, he's a strong option. His Corsi isn't quite as strong as one might hope, but he's still a reliable, 2nd pairing option that can take on tough minutes and would probably not look terrible next to EJ. However, there are some questions about his age, cost, and upside. He has the name recognition, but is his play really worth his cost?
Honorable Mention: Ryan McDonagh is one of those players I really don't think we have a chance at. Just like OEL and Vlasic yesterday, he's a young, #1 defenseman with solid skating, smarts, and defense to go with his career high 14 goals last season. He's locked in to a sweet 4.7 mil contract for the next 4 years, and he also happens to be the Rangers' Captain. It would take far more than we should pay to get him out of New York.
New York Trade Probability: For what it's worth, there are fans out there that feel O'Reilly would be a great fit on the Rangers, and skill-wise, Staal would be a good fit on the Avs. The question is whether or not the Avs could or even should pursuit the trade. At 28, he's a little older than the rest of the core, and his long-term contract brings both positives and negatives based on his play. However, at the end of the day, Marc Staal would make the Avs a better team. I'm just now sure who would fill up behind him on the New York roster.
Ottawa
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Patrick Wiercioch | 24 | 6'-5'' | 206 | #42 Overall 2008 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:00 | 2 | 1 | |
Jared Cowen | 24 | 6'-5'' | 228 | #9 Overall 2009 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 18:24 | 3.1 | 2 |
Pittsburgh
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Olli Maatta | 20 | 6'-2'' | 206 | #22 Overall 2012 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 20:42 | 0.894 | 1 | |
Simon Despres | 23 | 6'-4'' | 214 | #30 Overall 2009 | 54 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 16:26 | 0.9 | 1 |
Of the two, I think Olli Maatta is the better option. For what it's worth, Hockey's Future ranks him as an 8.5, which is very good, and Penguins fans were singing his praises earlier this year. From the sounds of it, he's an incredibly smart, decent sized defenseman who is already playing at a level far beyond his years. His stats for someone that young are almost ungodly, his decision making is very strong, and his passing is solid as well. He may have some untapped offensive potential, but he is very easily a Top 4 defenseman already and was a Finnish Olympian last year at age 19. He's currently sidelined with a shoulder injury, but when healthy, he'd look incredible next to EJ for the next decade.
One player that's had a bit of a rough time in Pittsburgh is Simon Despres. He has good skating and good size, but his time with the Penguins has been very polarizing. Things seem to be turning around for him more as of late, and he's spent time skating with Letang on the top pairing this year. There's upside there, but Pittsburgh has a log-jam of young defensemen on their way up through the system. Does that make the 23-year-old Despres expendable? And does he have the upside to make it worthwhile for Colorado? If he could be had for something below an O'Reilly trade - maybe a McGinn level one? - I'd be very happy with that. He's a bit of a risk, but a 2nd pairing reward might be worth it.
Honorable Mentions: Derrick Pouliot is likely to be very good very soon, but he's a bit on the smaller and more offensive side. I don't think he'd be the right fit for us, especially as Barrie or EJ's partner. Scott Harrington and Brian Dumoulin are both smart, defensive, good passing defensemen with size and a high hockey IQ, but they're still quite a few years out developmentally. In another year or two, they'd probably make this list, but they're definitely not Top 4 ready right now.
Pittsburgh Trade Probability: Maybe. They're a team that's pretty close against the cap for next year as it is, so I'm not sure if someone like O'Reilly (and his price tag) would interest them. However, someone like McGinn might net us a player in the Harrington/Dumoulin/Despres range. It will be interesting to see how they deal with this glut of prospects - and keep in mind these are only the ones from their left side! - over the next few years.
Toronto
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Morgan Rielly | 20 | 6'-1'' | 205 | #5 Overall 2012 | 57 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 19:21 | 0.894 | 1 | |
Jake Gardiner | 24 | 6'-2'' | 184 | #17 Overall 2008 | 55 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 20:25 | 4.05 | 4 |
Oh, Toronto. I'm tempted to jump straight to the trade probability portion, but I'll refrain and talk about these two defensemen first. It should be mentioned that they have some of the weirdest usage in the league. Despite playing against lower competition, they're given primarily defensive zone starts. Granted, TOR almost ALWAYS starts in the defensive zone and have honestly done their best to shelter these two young blueliners, and relative Corsi-wise, they've both done quite well in the situation. Unfortunately, this usage it does make it a bit difficult to read how their numbers and skills would transfer if moved to a different team.
Anyway, Morgan Rielly is a player held in high regards by Maple Leaf fans. He stepped into the NHL directly from Juniors and has impressed despite all the Toronto being Toronto craziness. He's much more of a fast, offensive defenseman with good puck skills than a shut-down guy, and my understanding of his game is that he's fairly similar to Barrie. However, in a season where things are going, well, less than outstanding for the Leafs, Reilly has been one of the few bright spots.
Jake Gardiner also displays a more offensively-oriented style, plus his zone exits were quite good last season. However, he's found himself scratched three times this season and Carlyle referred to his play as "very erratic". Part of that is likely due to the fact that he's often paired with Luke Schenn and has been the victim of bad save % puck luck, although it should be noted that there is concern about his upside, especially in the defensive sense. At 24 and with 4 seasons under his belt, he gets far less leeway than his 20-year-old teammate.
Toronto Trade Probability: It is absolutely no secret that the Leafs are interested in O'Reilly. TOR fans practically start drooling when his name is mentioned. However, I'm not sold at all on Rielly or Gardiner. I think they'll be good players, but we don't have the defense to properly shelter them here, and besides, we need to be looking for someone to complement Barrie, not duplicate him. At the end of the day, I sincerely believe that they're not the type of defensemen we need. For that reason, I just don't see Toronto as a good trade partner.
Washington
- | Player | Age | Ht | Wt | Draft | GP | G | A | PTS | TOI/GP | CapHit | Yrs |
Karl Alzner | 26 | 6'-2'' | 217 | #5 Overall 2007 | 58 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 19:19 | 2.8 | 2 |
Defense is the primary driver of Karl Alzner's game. He's a pretty under-the-radar guy (unless he's wearing sick shades or being embarrassed by Duchene), but he plays defensively responsible hockey with good zone exits and traditionally strong qual comp. He did take a step backwards last year and has been demoted to 2nd pairing duty this season, but he has the mobility and skills that would look great next to Erik Johnson.
Washington Trade Probability: The Caps could use a 2nd line center, but I'm not sure that moving Alzner is the way they'd go about it. He's very clearly in their Top 4, and to the extend of my knowledge, the Caps don't have anyone coming up through the system that could take his place. Perhaps a trade with WSH works out using a forward or such, but I don't see Alzner leaving DC anytime soon.
Conclusions
After looking at these 39 defensemen over the two conferences, it's clear that there's a lot of great, young talent in the league. It's also clear that the Avs would like to tap into it to bolster their own corps. If the O'Reilly situation goes south, they'll likely have the chance to do just that.
In the East, Buffalo is clearly a great fit, and there's a lot of potential for Florida, Ottawa, and the Islanders as well. Zadorov, Kulikov, de Haan, Wiercioch, and Cowen in particular intrigue me. Despres and Merrill do as well, and it's possible they could be had for a smaller trade than a core-for-core swap. Overall, the east probably has better options for us than the Western Conference, although Ekholm may still be my favorite semi-reasonable target overall. Lots of food for thought with this group.