FanPost

Draft Preview: Forward Thinking

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports


Projecting defensemen at the draft is notoriously difficult. Examples abound, but to name just a few recent ones: how silly do the New Jersey Devils feel now for taking Adam Larsson while Dougie Hamilton was still on the board? How much different would things be in Winnipeg if the then-Thrashers had drafted Alex Pietrangelo instead of Zach Bogosian? If the 2010 draft were re-held today, I doubt Erik Gudbranson and Dylan McIlrath would still be the first defensemen picked, ahead of Cam Fowler and Justin Faulk among others.

With that in mind, a lot of teams decide to avoid the hassle and uncertainty of going after a big name defenseman and stick with the easier-to-project forwards. In Colorado's case it may be a moot point; if you read as many mock drafts as I do, you'll notice very few have any of the big 3 on defense, mentioned in my previous write up on this site, still available to the Avs at the number 10 spot. Knowing that so many teams in the top nine need defensemen, the Avs will likely be taking a forward when they pick. So, which one? Which of the many talented forwards in this draft will be pulling an Avs sweater over his head on June 26? There are a lot of options, and you may not be familiar with all of them. With that in mind, let's look at some of the forwards Colorado could potentially select with the tenth overall pick. As always, comments and questions are more than welcome.

Lawson Crouse, LW, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

Few players in this draft have generated the level of debate that Crouse has. The concerns are as obvious as the apparent benefits. Crouse's numbers (51 points in 56 games) are better than average, but are concerning for a player labeled as a top prospect, especially when you consider three of his fellow OHL draft eligibles topped 100 points this year. The common refrain from some commenters here at Mile High Hockey is that if Crouse weren't 6'4 we wouldn't be talking about him as a potential pick at all.

That, however, is a moot point. Crouse is 6'4, plays a power forward's game, is willing to both hit and fight, and does manage to score goals. Looking deeper at his numbers, one thing that stands out is his 29 goals in 56 games. Over a full OHL season that projects at a 35-40 goal pace, and he did that without Sam Bennet or, after a trade with North Bay, Ryan Kujawinski. Would you use a top ten pick on a 6'4 40 goal scorer who could fight? You find me a team in the NHL that wouldn't.

So why didn't Crouse play a full season? He was a little busy, winning gold with Team Canada at the WJC as a 17-year-old. For the record, the only other player on the team who could claim that was Connor McDavid. That Crouse played for Canada, and took a regular shift under no-nonsense head coach Benoit Groulx, is a major feather in his cap. His play during the Subway Super Series was noteworthy as well.

So what's the final word on Crouse? Well, according to scouts, he projects at worst as a top-9 forward who can score. At best, he's a top six winger with brawn and scoring touch the Avs desperately need. A line with him and Gabe Landeskog could be scary in more ways than one down the line. That said, there's no denying question marks surround his potential. Next year will give us a clearer indication of what kind of player Crouse will grow to be.

Mikko Rantanen, RW, TPS (Finnish Elite League)

If Crouse's lack of points scares you off, but you find yourself enticed by his size, you might be better off backing Mikko Rantanen, a player Mile High Hockey has tabbed for the Avs in the SBN mock draft. Rantanen boasts Crouse's size, and while he lacks the mean streak of the Frontenac's winger, he is willing to go hard on the forecheck, has a better shot and overall better offensive instincts, and plays a complete game. Rantanen is also very good at using his long reach to strip pucks away from defenders without putting them through the end wall.

Rantanen's shot and willingness to drive the net are big attributes for him, and both were on full display at the WJC for a disappointing Finnish squad. Rantanen scored 4 goals in in five games, and that accounted for half the goals Finland scored in the tournament. Rantanen was at times a one-man show at home as well; his 28 points in 56 games may not look like much, but when you consider he was his team's second leading scorer (playing against grown men as an 18-year-old) you get a sense of what has scouts so impressed with the towering winger. Though his skating needs work, the size, shooting ability, and scoring touch of Rantanen, coupled with his mature game, make him an enticing pick at number ten.

Timo Meier, RW, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

Those who have concerns about Lawson Crouse's point totals will have no such concerns about Meier, not after a 44 goal 90 point season. Meier has a pro-calibre shot already, and displayed some of his talent at the top prospects game as a standout on a line with Connor McDavid and Travis Konecny. Meier is also willing to use his size in other ways. The 6'1 209 pound Swiss-born forward forechecks hard and has no problem dropping a shoulder into anyone foolish enough to get between him and where he wants to go. In that way he reminds me a bit of Gabe Landeskog; a European import playing a very North American style, with a pro calibre shot, who forechecks hard and is strong on the puck in front of the net and in the corners. These were hallmarks of the Avs captain in his draft year. A major difference is Landeskog was more of a scrapper, but Meier showed he was willing to stick up for his teammates if need be, squaring off with (and thumping) Charlottetown's David Henley after a big hit on line mate Nikolaj Ehlers.

The big concern with Meier is whether or not his success can be attributed to Ehlers. It's worth noting that Meier was a point per game player at the WJC for the Swiss, and Ehlers was playing on the Danish team so he did that on his own. Meier might be a bit of a stretch at 10, as most scouts have him in the teens, but his size and skill set are intriguing. This is a player who, down the line, could make teams wonder how he slipped as far as he did.

Kyle Connor, C, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)

In a draft where almost every bit of hyperbole contains the phrase "except for McDavid and Eichel", Kyle Connor, the other Connor in this draft, has a big one attached to him: Except for McDavid and Eichel, Kyle Connor might have the best hands of any prospect in the draft (it's either him or Mitch Marner). Connor has put up back to back 30-goal seasons in the USHL, no mean feat in a league in which it is notoriously difficult to score, and while his size (6'1, 183 lbs.) doesn't intimidate, there's no indication it would be a concern at the NHL level either. The Avs don't really have a forward with Connor's touch around the net, and the USHL's leading scorer (80 points in just 56 games) would give the Avs another weapon up front.

One thing about players in the USHL is they're often more difficult to get a read on, thanks to playing against weaker competition than their CHL brethren. There's no worries about Connor on that front, however. He put up a point per game on the third line of team USA's under-18 squad, playing against the best players his age in the world, when he was still a year away from his draft year. He was the only non-USNTDP player on the squad.

With great speed, a wicked shot and good hands, the only real caveat with Kyle Connor is that he's a few years away from the NHL. He will have time to develop at the University of Michigan.

Matt Barzal, C, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

A freak off-ice knee injury cost Barzal much of his draft year, yet he still managed 57 points in just 44 games. A play-making centre (and I know the Avs have a lot of depth at centre, but more is not a bad thing) Barzal has been talked about ever since he was selected first overall in the WHL Bantam Draft in 2012. His point totals in the WHL were impressive, but not as much so as his 12 points in 7 games at the World Under-18's. Size is neither an enticement nor a red flag with Barzal, but he is known to be strong on his feet for an average-sized player. He needs to get a bit stronger, but most scouts feel that will come with time.

Strength, however, is not Barzal's calling card. What draws scouts to the product of Burnaby's Bantam program (yes, that Burnaby) is his intelligence and playmaking skills. Barzal has some of the best vision in the draft, and lays his passes on the tape for linemates. When coupled with what scouts describe as elite level skating, his vision makes him a very dangerous player. If not for the aforementioned knee injury, we might be talking about Barzal as a top six pick. As it is we still might be, as some experts believe the New Jersey Devils are high on him.

Pavel Zacha, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

I'll tell you right off the hop I was a little skeptical of Zacha coming into the season, but my skepticism was not shared by NHL scouts, and the more I read about Zacha and saw of him, the less skeptical I got. The big Czech forward has a resume very similar to that of Lawson Crouse. A big forward (6'3, 214 lbs) who didn't put up the point totals expected of a top prospect (34 points in 37 games) but who did so playing without much to work with in terms of linemates and who plays a physical game. At times Zacha can even be a little overzealous with his physical play, earning two suspensions over the OHL season. Though his WJC wasn't what scouts wanted (2 points in 5 games) it's also not shocking a 17-year-old didn't shred the tournament.

Listed as a centre, some scouts think Zacha is better suited to a winger's game, with his shoot-first, drive the net mentality and his straight-line play. Some have gone so far as to call Zacha uncreative, a major knock on a centre but not a huge handicap for a power winger. Zacha's compete level is off the charts (he got full marks on it from Central Scouting, the only player to do so), and his physical play, on full display with the Czech U18 squad, makes him noteworthy in the eyes of scouts.

All that said, most of Zacha's potential has yet to be realized. If he lives up to what he's capable of, he'll be a top six forward with size, competitiveness and a mean streak. However his offensive game, the game you expect from a top ten drafted player, needs to round out. The potential is there, perhaps even more so than with Crouse, but the gamble is there as well. It remains to be seen whether the Avs make it, or whether it's even there for them to make (many experts have Zacha on New Jersey's radar, while others claim he'd be a perfect fit in San Jose; he strikes me as the kind of player that would appeal to both those teams).

Those are my thoughts on some of the best forwards likely to be available to the Avs at the number ten overall pick. Any questions? Comments? Points of debate? All are welcome. Thanks for reading!

MileHighHockey.com is a fan community, allowing members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Colorado Avalanche and hockey in general. These views and thoughts may not be shared by the editors of MileHighHockey.com.

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