See the pain set in your eyes
See the knee twist at your side
We wait for you

Drought of goals and drop in rank
On a bed of nails you make us wait
And we wait without you

With or without you
With or without you

Through this stretch our offense bores
They give it all but we need more
And we're waiting for you

With or without you
With or without you
We can't win
With or without you

And you give the game away
And you give the game away
And you give
And you give
And you give our hopes away

The score is tied
Your body bruised, he's got us with
Nothing to win and
Nothing left to lose

And you give the game away
And you give the game away
And you give
And you give
And you give lottery picks away

With or without you
With or without you
We can't win
With or without you.

The Avs have stumbled to a 6-8-1 record without their top player. They've been outscored 38-31 over that stretch, and have only won 2 games in which they've scored less than 3 goals. They have won EVERY game in which they score 3 goals or more. Get well soon Dutchy.

Love always,

MHH

Okay, folks, I get it. Semyon Varlamov has not exactly been the second coming of St Patrick since his arrival in Denver. In fact, he hasn't even eclipsed the not-so-celebrated Avalanche tenures of guys like Jose Theodore and Craig Anderson. The Avalanche gave up a lot to get Varlamov and lately they are playing like they would like to give up a lot more for Varlamov. Varly has been maddeningly streaky - 13 goals the last 3 games, 5 goals in the 4 games preceding, 18 goals in the 4 games before that, 11 goals in 6 games before that. Overall, his .898 save percentage has him ranked 60th in the league.

But let's not forget one important fact: Varlamov is 23 years old. Just 5 goalies with 9+ appearances this year are younger than Varly - Andres Lindback, Steve Mason (really?), Jhonas Enroth, Jonathan Bernier and Sergei Bobrovsky. He, like so many of his teammates, is just a kid.

To date, Varlamov has 44 career wins (ironically, the exact same total as his 23-year-old former teammate, Michal Neuvirth). I thought it would be fun to see how V-squared matches up with other 23-year-old goalies through the years. Using hockey reference's handy query tool, I was able to pull up the career numbers for all goalies who had at least 40 wins by age 23, narrowing it down to a "modern" era of 1980 or later.

All told, 39 goalies made the list. And Varly is down at the bottom in total wins and has a long way to go to catch up to the leaders.

However, among all those famous peers, Varly has the 4th best save percentage among 23 year olds with 40 career wins. Yes, guys like Roy and Fuhr played in different eras, but Varlamov compares very well with some very good modern-day goalies (plus Chris Osgood *rimshot*). He's also 5th in career GAA.

I think the appearance of Kari Lehtonen and Marc-Andre Fleury on the list is both encouraging and telling. As a 23-year old, Lehtonen backstopped an Atlanta team that finished with 97 points under Bob Hartley. In 68 appearances, he had 10 games with 1 goal or less allowed and 20 with 4 goals or more - more or less in line with Varlamov's (and Colorado's) current season (38 / 4 / 10). He has a .919 save percentage this year while Fleury - who also struggled as a youngster - has a .913 save percentage.

Bottom line: we're still reading the very early chapters of the Semyon Varlamov story. Yes, the story is little choppy here at the beginning, but there are many more pages to go and this deal was always about the future, not the present. And hey, perhaps the guy with 54 wins by the age of 23 can help. As a 23-yeard old, Kirk McLean played for a terrible Vancouver Canucks team. He posted an .880 save percentage and led the league in goals allowed, shots allowed and losses. 4 years later, he backstopped the Canucks to the Stanley Cup Finals. Part timer or not, he knows what Varlamov is going through...and he knows that the story gets better. Usually.

The Colorado Avalanche went into the All-Star break with a very disappointing loss to the Minnesota Wild. The outcome wasn't the worst part - it was that the Avs had a chance to make a statement but failed to bring their, uh, "A" game. Colorado has 31 games left and, at 54 points, figure to need 42 more points to secure a playoff spot. 17 of their remaining games are against a team currently in a playoff seed, leaving 13 against outside-looking-in teams. 10 of those 13 are against the 5 worst teams in the league - Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton and Columbus. They currently 3-3 against those dreggy teams; that will not cut it. It's almost a 50-50 split in terms of home and road; in fact it will be 15 of each after the Avs play in Edmonton on Tuesday.

So, what's working and what needs fixing? Well, let's take a look at how the Avalanche compare against the 14 other Western Conference teams. Colorado is 11th in the conference in scoring, averaging 2.43 goals a game. And they are 13th in goals allowed (2.82). And if that doesn't put you in a happy place, consider that the Avs have allowed 20 more goals than they have scored; only one Western Conference team - Columbus - has a worse goal differential. Okay, the Avs have an anemic offense and some inconsistent goaltending. Not news.

Digging a little deeper, the Avs rank 6th in the conference in shots per game and 7th in shots allowed. Both of those numbers are a bit surprising to me, and in both categories the Avs are about 2 shots per game better than last year. So, with shot totals like these, why aren't the Avs putting up better numbers? Perhaps this is where you have to single out specific players. Semyon Varlamov has played some great hockey, but hasn't gotten the job done enough between the pipes. And, 6 million dollar man Paul Stastny is second in team scoring with 30 points. NINETY-NINE players have more points than that this year, including 7 defensemen and 3 rookies and 2 players from the friggin' Minnesota Wild. Oh, and Matt Duchene, I hope you got a chance to take in the All-Star game while rehabbing that injury. Did watching John Tavares in the game sting? How about the fact that he has double your point total right now? Double. Come back pissed off, young man. We need you.

At first glance, the Avs' powerplay is humming along nicely - 4th in the conference. But only 2 Western teams have had fewer chances, and the Avs' dreadfully bad home PP (13.6%) is a head-scratcher. And the PK? Well, it is better than last year and there have been some great stretches. At the end of the day, though, only Columbus in the West has allowed more PP goals. Not good.

One other thing the Avalanche need to change: 2nd period play. The Avs are -4 in goal differential in the 1st period, -4 in the 3rd and +2 in Overtime. In the 2nd, they are -14. Not sure exactly what is causing the team to suck so much more in the 2nd than the others - you wouldn't think the longer change would be a negative for such a young team

There you have it. The Avalanche need Varlamov to play better or J.S. Giguere to play more. The Avs' star forwards - Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk - need to start putting some points on the board. It wouldn't hurt to get some more production out of David Jones and T.J. Galiardi as well (yeah, Gally is playing well...but he still has just 14 points). Here's an odd stat: the Avalanche 8 forwards with at least as many goals as assists. For whatever reason, Avalanche forwards don't seem to be registering a lot of assists. This is troubling. I have a moderate amount of confidence that Varly can turn things around; and if he can't, Giguere should be able to carry the load. But this team has been in an offensive funk all season long and I'm just not sure that's going to change. It's time for the Avs' still-pretty-young guns to load the six shooters with live ammo. That's what they need to do to make it in the West.

All season, we've been concerned about our top players not putting up the points like they should. We predicted that Duchene should end up with around an 80 point season, and Hejduk and Stastny should end up somewhere in the high 60's - mid 70's range.

Right now, the Avs leading scorer is Ryan O'Reilly with a projected 59 points, 8 less than what Duchene posted last year.

Luckily, our depth players have been able to pick up the slack and the Avs are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. But it's well known that the pace picks up in the second half of the season. I'm worried about our Top 6 not putting up as many points as they need to, but I wasn't sure how worried to be. So I did a little research.

Turns out, we should be concerned. Very concerned.

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Raw Data - Top Six Scorers from the Western Conference Playoff Teams

Season By Season Team Breakdown

("Sum of 6" = sum of goals from top 6 goalscorers on the given team; "% of 6" percentage of team's total goals scored by the top 6 goalscorers; "Goal Diff." = goal differential, aka team goals for minus team goals against)

Time for another installment of random or quirky Avalanche stats that may only be interesting to me. I'll start with my old standby:

Since the Peter Mueller trade, Wojtek Wolski has 18 goals. Kevin Porter has 17.

The next player to make his debut for the Avalanche will be the 200th player to play for the Avs in a regular season game. The player after that will be the 400th player to play for the Nordiques & Avalanche franchise.

Among current players and only counting stats recorded as an Avalanche, Milan Hejduk has the highest career +/- with 116. Second on the list is Ryan Wilson, at +10. Gabriel Landeskog is third, at +6.

Cody McLeod has the worst career +/- in an Avalanche uniform, with -38. Right above him on the list is Tyler Arnason, at -25.

Gabriel Landeskog leads all rookies in hits (89), takeaways (30) and shots (107).

Since the start of the 2009 season, 17 teams have made a total of 22 coaching changes.

Paul Stastny's numbers before and after signing his extension:

Ryan O'Reilly is leading the league in takeaways. He was in the top 10 in the category in each of his first two seasons.

10 different players have worn #6 for the Avs, making it the most popular jersey number in team history. No player has worn it in 100 games for the Avs. Erik Johnson has worn it in 51 games.

Hey MHH faithful,

I've spent the last 3 minutes writing the opening to a moving play based on a very true (and very sad) story. I was wondering if I could get some assistance from you, the readers, to help flesh this puppy out into an epic tale that we can perform on Thursday night in our living rooms and local Denver bars to see if we can't perhaps break a current goal scoring void created by several Avalanche players by calling them out with a little humor - and nothing but love. The "conclusion" from the comments section with the most recs by 5pm Mountain will be re-posted on the front page as the ending to this classy post. And.......ACTION! [edit: Markopolo is the winner! Thank you to all who participated, read, laughed, or rolled their eyes in elitist disgust.]

"I HATE SCORING GOALS", a pretty good play by MHH writers and readers.

Erik and Cody, dressed like two schmucks from a Jane Austen novel, saunter up to the street corner, waiting for a carriage. Erik presents his hand.

Erik: "Pleased to make your acquaintance. My Name is Erik Johnson, of the Minnesotan Johnsons. I hate scoring goals."

Cody takes Erik's hand and shakes it like a true gentlemen.

Cody: "Nice to meet you Erik, My name is Cody McLeod. You may call me Mr. McLeod. I too dislike putting pucks in nets. I find in grotesquely improper."

Erik: "Charmed I'm sure. However, I assure you that I dislike scoring goals even more than thee, Mr. McLeod. It is a vile nuisance and I shall not take part of it."

Cody: "I protest good sir. I have played 24 NHL games this year, and have yet to score a goal. So clearly, I detest scoring more than thee. I have yet to find it agreeable, and doubt very much that I should find otherwise."

Erik: "Be still Cody Mac! I have suited up for 26 contests and have yet to find twine, so obviously, it is I who hate scoring goals all the more!

A carriage pulls to a stop in front of the two gentlemen, driven by the nymph Brandon Yip.

Yip: "Hiya fellars! Gee, what yous guys talkin' 'bout?"

Erik: "Silence young squire and get thee hence!"

Cody: "And bring us forth some of thine delicious nachos!"

Yip tucks his tail and pilots his carriage away down healthy scratch Avenue.

Cody: "Mr Johnson, I take exception! I declare that you have 10 points on the season - all assists - so clearly you like goals, you simply prefer to help other people to score them as opposed to yourself - which is simply abhorrent. I for one loathe goal scoring so much that I've only helped on one tally - and it was during a time of a momentary lapse of good judgment to which I have since seen the reverend mother and been fully washed clean."

Erik: "Ha. Ha. HAH! I slappeth mine knee at thee! If you will take notice of my team worst plus/minus -14, you will find that I detest scoring goals so much, that I do all I can to make sure my entire team does not score goals! Mr McLeod, you have a -2, which may as well be a hat trick in my book!"

Cody: "What, forsooth, are you insinuating?"

Erik points his finger as his voice raises several octaves to the pitch of a 6 year-old school girl.

Erik: "GOAL LOVER! YOU'RE A GOAL LOVER! YOU LOVE SCORING GOALS! GOAL LOVER! GOAL LOVER! CODY IS A GOAL LOVER!!

Cody: "I oppose any such label. I play minimal minutes on the 4th line, have only taken 14 shots all year, and have even been a healthy scratch, so obviously, I'm doing nothing to even attempt to score a goal!!"

Erik: "Goal lover."

Cody: "You know, my friends used to call me "Highlander" - and can there can be only one!"

Cody draws his blade and Erik dodges the sabre thrust. However, in doing so, he trips on a golf cart, and is gone for the rest of the season with a blown ego knee.

An Unmitigated Disaster opined that he had noticed that Avalanche PK specialist Daniel Winnik seemed to be seeing a lot of ice time in the month of November. So much ice time that he was eclipsing talented players like Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene, Milan Hejduk, and David Jones. I wondered if his numbers were inflated due to the penalty kill time he sees as there would likely be no other justifiable reason for such a discrepancy. I then politely asked AUD to verify his assertions using maths. Which is exactly what he/she did. Sorta. So, in an effort to both keep my word and avoid work associated with my own livelihood, I decided to take a closer look.

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