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Reading Between the Lines

Last night, Joel Quenneville introduced three new line combinations. Of the four lines used, only the first line of Sakic, Wolski and Brunette has been used previously this season (it was the 8th time this year for this line).

I know what you are thinking: this is going to be the 192nd riff on "ZOMG WHY IS QUENNEVILLE SCREWING WITH THE DAMN LINES". Actually, I'm headed in a different direction here.

Here are your even strength numbers for each of the 4 lines so far this year (including last night's "game"):

1st: 13g-19a-32p -11; 13.6 ATOI
2nd: 23g-28a-51p +21; 13.1 ATOI
3rd:  8g-11a-19p -2; 11.6 ATOI
4th:  3g-5a-8p -5; 7.9 ATOI

Obviously, the 2nd line jumps out here as being the one that's carrying the team. They are +21 while the the other 3 lines are a combined -18. Currently, the 2nd line is responsible for a whopping 46% of the EV scoring, with the 1st line pitching in 29%, 17% from the 3rd line and a meager 8% from the 4th line.

Those numbers can tell us a lot of things about the Avs season so far. Last year, the scoring was far more evenly distributed (35%, 32%, 21%, 12%). With 3 lines well off of last-years pace, teams are keying on the one line we have that is doing well - the Stastny line. At home, that's a bit of a concern, but usually something that can be overcome (thanks to the final line change).  On the road, when teams can - and do - put out their best defenders against that line, the results are a complete fizzle on offense. With the 2nd line shut down and the other lines slumping, you end up with a lot of 1-goal games away from home (6 of the 11 road games we've scored 1 goal or less).

So, the next time you hear an analyst talking about Stastny's wild home/road splits, you'll know it isn't just because Stastny likes "home cooking" (as Ray Ferraro told us last night). It has a lot to do with other guys on the team not pulling their weight.

..

Okay, I did say I wasn't going to moan about the line changes, but I do have a couple of related points to make.

We've played 23 games. In those 23 games, we've seen 5 different 1st lines, 7 2nd lines, 11 3rd lines and 12 different 4th lines. 8 players have seen time on the first, followed by 6, 9 and 9 on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines respectively. Is this hockey or some sort of 8th grade math experiment? That's too many combinations.

Let's look again at the 1st line, which, again, is slumping badly. Last year, this line had 141 points at even strength. They are on pace to score just 114 this year. Interestingly, 20 of the 32 EV points this line has scored have come when from the combo of - drumroll please - Sakic, Wolski and Brunette. The combo used in just 35% of the games has 63% of it's points. Perhaps we can stick with this one for a bit?

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Wow

I may be the only person that reads your posts (or at least comments on them), but please don't ever stop.  This is the kind of stuff I could read all day.

Maybe that's why I'm also a baseball fan.

And who says there aren't enough statistics in hockey?

by Joe Dunman on Nov 29, 2007 2:15 PM MST reply actions  

thanks!

I'm going to print out these comments and put them on my fridge.

Hensick called up today, so the lines they are a changin'....

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Nov 29, 2007 2:24 PM MST reply actions  

Line 1 slump

Part of it had got to be from Sakic's slump since he has not moved from the first line.  Hopefully he has snapped out of it after last nights game.

And speaking of line changes, check this out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/s...

Hensick debut?

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Nov 29, 2007 2:25 PM MST reply actions  

Re: Sakic slump

Sakic's out with a groin injury.  So the slump, albeit  for a different reason, isn't ending any time soon.

by Joe Dunman on Nov 29, 2007 2:30 PM MST up reply actions  

Re: Sakic

Oooo yeah.  I forgot about the injury.  Should be fun to see Hensick though.

InYoFace Hasek! InYoFace

by InYoFace on Nov 29, 2007 2:31 PM MST up reply actions  

His slump is over kind of

He had a goal and an assist last night and a goal against Calgary. His slump was over, sort of

by Jibblescribbits on Nov 29, 2007 10:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Never EVER worry about Joe Sakic

Joe will end up being one of the top scorers in the Western Conference again.  Just put him on the first line and don't worry.  

by Dario on Nov 30, 2007 8:31 AM MST up reply actions  

Re: Never EVER

I only worry that he's expected to do more than he can at his age.  Super Joe is an amazing athlete with amazing longevity, but he's still getting up there in years.  Chelios may still be playing at 45 but he's definitely not the same defenseman he was when he was 35, that's for sure.

When he returns, I'd like to see Sakic play less on the PP (same with Arny, but just because he can't seem to do crap most of the time).   Stick Hlinka in his spot and see what happens.  Joe on the PP hasn't exactly been helping anything this year, so why not try something new and let the man rest?

by Joe Dunman on Nov 30, 2007 10:31 AM MST up reply actions  

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