Scoring First

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 18, 2007 8:10 AM MST in News Comment 25 comments

I predictably fell asleep long before the Kings began to mount their mini-comeback last night. But I was awake long enough to hear Peter McNab sell us on the importance of scoring first in the NHL.

The Avalanche are now 14-1 on the season when they score first. That 93.3% winning percentage is tops in the league. I'm not sure I can really explain that, as I'd tend to think of teams like Minnesota or New Jersey - good defense, solid goaltending teams - as being the best teams with an early lead. But that's not what I'm looking at today. (For the record, Minnesota is the 4th best team when scoring first and New Jersey is the 10th best).

If the Avs are 14-1 when scoring first, that means the team is a dismal 5-12-1 when they don't. That is the focus today, boys and girls.

Peter Budaj has started 19 times this year. 12 times (63% of the time) he's held the opponent off the board long enough for our boys to get the first goal. The Avalanche are a perfect 12-0 in those games. On the other side of the coin, the team is 1-6 when Budaj gives up the first goal (the one win actually going to Jose Theodore, in the come-from-behind win against Calgary).

Jose Theodore has started 14 times this year. Just 3 times (21% of the time) we've gotten the 1-0 lead. We're 2-1 in those games and 4-6-1 when he gives up the first goal.

Is it simply a matter of the team getting a better jump for Budaj? Nope. Budaj's goal's against average this year when the score is 0-0 is 1.82. Theodore? 4.51. Eep. Through last night's game, Budaj has a 1st period save percentage of .911, while Theodore's is .864.

To be fair, Theo does seem to get better as the game goes on (his 3rd period save % is .906), and that's why you see more comeback games with him in net. But, he's starting out too many games in the hole. Having to play a constant game of catch-up is no way to win consistently in the NHL. And when you have a goalie who can do a good job of keeping the other team off the board to help you get that early lead, he should be the one getting the majority of the starts.

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one more stat

Theodore has had a perfect 1st period 3 times this year. Budaj has done it 3 times this week and 9 times this year.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 18, 2007 8:13 AM MST reply actions

Hey!

I spend an entire game recap crying about Coach Q letting up the offensive pressure when his team scores first and all you do is tell me that the Avs are 14-1 when scoring first.

How am I supposed to get mad at Q when it turns out his strategy usually works? Damn you DD, damn you!!

by Joe Dunman on Dec 18, 2007 8:35 AM MST reply actions

In your defense

Joe, one thing you have to keep in mind is that the Avs score in bunches. So first goal can usually translate to first two or three goals. That's why Budaj's first period play and quick leads of two goals or more lead to such a great first goal record. The anxiety as a fan comes from watching the play slowly shift from the neutral zone play down to play in the Avalanche zone.

I'd much rather see the Avs dominate the entire game of course but in a rather weird way, it might be good for the defense in the longer run the way things are going. Even against the Kings last night they didn't score at even strength. The short handed goal was weird to me because Leoprone seemed to think it was a two on one so he laid down in no mans land when he could of attacked the puck carrier. The power play goal was actually a pretty damn good play by the Kings. The cycle down in the Avalanche zone creates some good learning opportunities for the Avs. McCormick, Brunette and Stastny had some brilliant defensive plays in that third period. But yeah, heart attack third periods make it tough to enjoy the moment.

by Dario on Dec 18, 2007 9:02 AM MST up reply actions

heh

it still doesn't seem natural for them to have such a good record when scoring first.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 18, 2007 9:01 AM MST reply actions

Re: heh

I know. We're so used to all the leads they coughed up last season.

by Joe Dunman on Dec 18, 2007 10:12 AM MST up reply actions

I love this quote from Budaj

Handzus sliced the deficit to 3-2 with 15:14 to play, beating Budaj with a 20-foot wrist shot from the right circle while teammate Michael Cammalleri was serving a tripping penalty. It was the first short-handed goal Colorado has given up this season, leaving Ottawa as the only team in the league that hasn't allowed one.

"I don't want to take anything away from him, but I think he fanned on it because the puck didn't come down flat," Budaj said. "I thought he was going low-blocker because I know Michael pretty well and that's his go-to shot. But he went 5-hole."

I like it because it shows how well prepared Budaj is and how focused he is to know who's shooting and what his tendacies are. The second thing I like about it is there was no "Leopold kind of blocked my view a bit" in there at all.

by Dario on Dec 18, 2007 9:16 AM MST reply actions

Re: I love

It's clear that Budaj has his head in the game every time he takes the ice. He's a good goalie and needs all the experience he can get to become even better.

by Joe Dunman on Dec 18, 2007 10:13 AM MST up reply actions

What are you doing DD?

To be fair, Theo does seem to get better as the game goes on (his 3rd period save % is .906), and that's why you see more comeback games with him in net. But, he's starting out too many games in the hole. Having to play a constant game of catch-up is no way to win consistently in the NHL. And when you have a goalie who can do a good job of keeping the other team off the board to help you get that early lead, he should be the one getting the majority of the starts.

You just gave Q the idea to rotate goalies per period. start Budaj and then put Theo in as Hockeys equivalent of a baseball closer.

by Jibblescribbits on Dec 18, 2007 9:25 AM MST reply actions

!

oh wow, genius!

Never trust the lunch lady.

by Hardshell_Taco_del_Lowayne on Dec 18, 2007 9:33 AM MST up reply actions

Re: !

Oh wow, terrifying!

by Joe Dunman on Dec 18, 2007 10:14 AM MST up reply actions

eek

On the really, really, really slim chance that Joel Quenneville is reading:

Theodore is not very good with the lead, either. I don't remember the numbers, but when we were blowing leads last year, I looked at the GAA of Budaj and Theodore when they had a lead. Budaj was much better.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 18, 2007 10:29 AM MST up reply actions

Whew

Wait so your numbers analysis says that Budaj is better than Theodore... that's umpossible

by Jibblescribbits on Dec 18, 2007 10:38 AM MST up reply actions

it's true.

it's probably only the 257th statistical comparison I've made of the two. So far, I think Budaj's come out on top 257 times.

by David Driscoll-Carignan on Dec 18, 2007 11:44 AM MST up reply actions

Obviously you missed something

Budaj is clearly not the better at the oft overlooked statistics of
"Attracting Skanky Hollywood wanna-be Starlets"

"Upkeep of dreamy locks"

The last one is especially important because he obviously believes the source of his strength comes from his hair, and we wouldn't want Theo to be at less than full strength right?

by Jibblescribbits on Dec 18, 2007 12:29 PM MST up reply actions