30 games left. Colorado right now has 54 points. To make the playoffs, they will probably need 96 points, meaning they need about 42 points over the last 30 games. That's a pace of 1.4 points per game - a very daunting task indeed. The Avs went a respectable 7-3-2 in January, and that breaks down to just 1.33 points per game (that pace would put them at 94 points for the season...and some early tee times).
So, here's the Avs magic number in a nutshell. They can lose 9 more times in regulation. That's it. Lose 10 games, and the best they can do is 94 points. Every two OT losses cuts down the number of allowable regulation losses by 1 - lose 4 OT games, and the Avs can lose just 7 regulation games. It's a pretty simple formula, but, assuming the 96-point barrier is a solid target, works.
So, how tough is this going to be? Colorado has just 12 home games left, with 18 coming on the road. 15 games are against NW opponents. They do have a decent record against the NW (9-7-2), but not good enough to get them in. Besides the divisional games, Colorado still has games against Dallas, Anaheim, Detroit, Buffalo, San Jose, Atlanta and Nashville. In other words, the Avs have a tough, tough road ahead of them.