I'm trying to resist the temptation to add Matt Duchene as my newest Facebook friend, so I found another exercise to pass the time. It's going to be a long couple of months...
Here's the last 20 players taken 3rd overall in the draft. I might have gone back further, but the next few years were mostly defensemen, so I stopped in 1989.
Needless to say, that's a fine list, as Svitov seems to be the one bust. Everyone else either has had a solid NHL career or seems to be on the way to having one.
Based on points per game, the best players on this list are Gaborik, Toews and Sedin (who, as of today, has ONE less point than his brother in his regular season and playoff career).
If you look at just the forwards, the average career PPG output is .59 (over an 82 game season, it breaks down to 20 goals, 28 assists, 48 points).
Here's the career PPG of some key Avalanche players (plus Tyler Arnason):
Statistically, that would seem to place our upcoming pick somewhere on an expected career trajectory between Marek Svatos and Wojtek Wolski, although he could be as bad as Tyler Arnason or as good as Milan Hejduk.
On second thought, the Facebook friending can wait.