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Other Number Threes

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I'm trying to resist the temptation to add Matt Duchene as my newest Facebook friend, so I found another exercise to pass the time. It's going to be a long couple of months...

Here's the last 20 players taken 3rd overall in the draft. I might have gone back further, but the next few years were mostly defensemen, so I stopped in 1989.

 

GP G A P +/- Pim PPG
2008 D Atl Zach Bogosian 47 9 10 19 11 47 0.40
2007 F Pho Kyle Turris 66 8 13 21 -20 23 0.32
2006 F Chi Jonathan Toews 146 58 65 123 23 95 0.84
2005 D Car Jack Johnson 120 9 13 22 -42 140 0.18
2004 D Chi Cam Barker 149 13 53 66 -21 161 0.44
2003 F Fla Nathan Horton 357 122 116 238 28 340 0.67
2002 D Fla Jay Bouwmeester 471 53 150 203 -27 329 0.43
2001 F TB Alexander Svitov 179 13 24 37 -22 223 0.21
2000 F Min Marian Gaborik 502 219 218 437 54 301 0.87
1999 F Van Henrik Sedin 646 109 351 460 97 370 0.71
1998 D SJ Brad Stuart 646 61 183 244 -2 398 0.38
1997 F LA Olli Jokinen 799 237 281 518 -85 794 0.65
1996 F NYI JP Dumont 678 187 272 459 -12 328 0.68
1995 D LA Aki Berg 606 15 70 85 -12 374 0.14
1994 F Ott Radek Bonk 969 194 303 497 -22 581 0.51
1993 F TB Chris Gratton 1092 214 354 568 -143 1638 0.52
1992 D SJ Mike Rathje 768 30 150 180 26 491 0.23
1991 D NJ Scott Niedermayer 1183 162 530 692 175 746 0.58
1990 F Det Keith Primeau 909 266 353 619 124 1541 0.68
1989 F Tor Scott Thornton 941 144 141 285 -122 1459 0.30

 

Needless to say, that's a fine list, as Svitov seems to be the one bust. Everyone else either has had a solid NHL career or seems to be on the way to having one.

Based on points per game, the best players on this list are Gaborik, Toews and Sedin (who, as of today, has ONE less point than his brother in his regular season and playoff career).

If you look at just the forwards, the average career PPG output is .59 (over an 82 game season, it breaks down to 20 goals, 28 assists, 48 points).

Here's the career PPG of some key Avalanche players (plus Tyler Arnason):

 

Sakic 1.19
Stastny 0.96
Hejduk 0.84
Smyth 0.72
Wolski 0.61
Svatos 0.58
Liles 0.51
Arnason 0.50
Stewart 0.36
Jones 0.28

 

Statistically, that would seem to place our upcoming pick somewhere on an expected career trajectory between Marek Svatos and Wojtek Wolski, although he could be as bad as Tyler Arnason or as good as Milan Hejduk.

On second thought, the Facebook friending can wait.