SportsDalaiLama broke down the Avs' tough remaining schedule yesterday over at Real Denver Sports. In a follow-up to that, I thought I'd take a look at the way the Avalanche are shaping up in terms of tiebreakers; it seems like a real possibility that the Avalanche end up tied with someone in the tightly-wound Western Conference.
For reference, here's the way the NHL decides tiebreakers:
- The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
- The greater number of games won.
- The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
- The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.
We can ignore the first one, as everyone will have played 82 games by the end of the season (the only point this really counts). And I'm not going to bother with the "more than two clubs" scenario either. I'm going to skip San Jose, Chicago, Columbus and Edmonton - all teams either far ahead or behind the Avalanche in the standings.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Vancouver | 61 | 37 | 76 | + 42 | 6 | 2 |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 2 | 2 |
The Avalanche are 2 wins behind the Canucks in wins, can't win the head-to-head tiebreaker and are 22 behind in goal differential. In short, the Avalanche need at least one more point than Vancouver to overtake them in the standings.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Phoenix | 63 | 37 | 79 | + 9 | 0 | 2 |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 4 | 2 |
The Avalance are two wins behind Phoenix in the first head to head, but do have two games in hand. If the Avalanche can make up that gap, they would be be in good shape in the other areas. Phoenix can't win the head-to-head tiebreaker and the Avs have a lead in goal differential - the final tiebreaker.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Los Angeles | 61 | 37 | 78 | + 19 | 2 | 3 |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 0 | 3 |
Once again, the Avalanche are 2 wins behind the Kings in the first tiebreaker. Should they manage to overcome that the rest of the way, the other two tiebreakers are still up for grabs.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 3 | 0 |
| Nashville | 61 | 33 | 71 | - 3 | 6 | 0 |
This season series is over, with Nashville in control of the head-to-head. If they can make up those two wins and 5 points, they'll own the tiebreaker; goal differential won't come into play for this one.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 8 | 2 |
| Calgary | 62 | 30 | 69 | E | 1 | 2 |
Thanks to the way the Avs have dominated the season series so far, Calgary would need to make up 6 wins on the Avalanche in their final 20 games to hold a tiebreaking edge. That won't happen, but they could make up those 7 points in the standings, so lets not get cocky. Yet.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 4 | 1 |
| Dallas | 61 | 28 | 68 | -11 | 2 | 1 |
This one's probably locked up for the Avs. Dallas would need 8 more wins than the Avs, since they can't win the head-to-head tiebreaker and don't seem likely to win the goal differential tiebreaker, either.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 4 | 1 |
| Detroit | 61 | 28 | 68 | - 5 | 3 | 1 |
Detroit can still win the head-to-head tiebreaker with a win on March 1st, but they'd also have to make up 7 wins. That's not going to happen.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 0 | 3 |
| Anaheim | 62 | 30 | 67 | - 12 | 2 | 3 |
Anaheim is 5 wins behind the Avalanche - better shape than Detroit and Dallas. And, with the season series still to be decided, they still have a chance to win a tiebreaker over the Avs.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 4 | 2 |
| St Louis | 62 | 28 | 65 | - 9 | 0 | 2 |
With no shot to win the head-to-head tiebreaker, St Louis either needs 8 more wins or make up 30 points in goal differential. Next.
| GP | W | Pt | Diff | H2H Pts | H2H GR | |
| Colorado | 61 | 35 | 76 | + 20 | 4 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 61 | 30 | 64 | - 7 | 6 | 0 |
Minnesota is 12 points behind the Avalanche, so chances of them catching the Avalanche are remote. They do own the head-to-head tiebreaker, should it ever come to that.
In conclusion, the Avalanche the Avalanche aren't in terrific shape when it comes to tiebreakers with the teams closest to them in the standings. A few more wins - especially over teams like Vancouver, Los Angeles and Phoenix - would help them out substantially.
Finally, while goal differential is the final tiebreaker and isn't likely to be a factor on April 11th, it's worth noting that the Avalanche are 4th in the league in that category behind Washington, San Jose, Chicago and Vancouver. Not bad for a team that was 27th last year in the category (-58).