The preseason is like foreplay. A lot of initial excitement, some confusion, new sights, sounds and smells, but after a little while you just want it to be over so you can move onto the real thing.
The Avalanche just completed their worst preseason since, well, last preseason, when they went 2-5. As ugly as that record is, it's not their worst preseason. The 2001 post-cup team went 1-5-0 in their preseason after lifting Lord Stanley's holy grail 3 months earlier (that's called a hangover). But that team went on to compile a 45-28-8-1 regular season record before bowing out in 7 games in the Conference finals to the eventual champs, so obviously the preseason was not a preview of what was to come. In general, the preseason is not a barometer of a team's potential or a precursor to anything. It's a time for a team to figure out who they are - both in terms of identity and personnel. Really, the preseason is kind of worthless from an analytical stand point, but that won't stop us from pulling out our abacus and trying to extract some kind of deep, profound, Dalai Lama zen-like voodoo data.
Based on the Einsteinian chart below which reviews the Avs' pre-regular-post season records since the lockout, you'll notice that it's about 50/50 whether or not the Avs' regular season mirrored their preseason record, which is a solid enough ratio to confirm that this entire post is pointless as an analysis of a team's regular season potential - just like the preseason itself.....and we've come full circle! Begin existential discussion NOW.
|
SEASON |
PRESEASON RECORD |
REGULAR SEASON RECORD |
POSTSEASON RECORD |
Preseason foreshadows regular season? |
|
2011-2012 |
2-4 |
TBD |
TBD |
Lord, I pray thee, let it not be so. |
|
2010-2011 |
2-5 |
30-44-8 |
Missed playoffs |
Unfortunately Yes |
|
2009-2010 |
3-3 |
43-30-9 |
2-2-2 |
Thankfully No |
|
2008-2009 |
4-1-1 |
32-45-5 |
Missed playoffs |
Unfortunately No |
|
2007-2008 |
4-0-2 |
44-31-7 |
4-4-2 |
Thankfully Yes |
|
2006-2007 |
5-1-0 |
44-31-7 |
Missed playoffs |
Unfortunately No |
|
2005-2006 |
4-0-2 |
43-30-9 |
4-4-1 |
Thankfully Yes |
Yes the Avs' play this preseason has not magic erased the abysmal season past, but it is not time to grab your life preserver just yet. Lots of young players and a crop of new players just means they will need some time to adjust to each other and their new surroundings. The Avs won't finish 29th, however managing expectations is probably smart. But if there's anything that renob who threw the banana at Wayne Simmonds has taught us, it's that fans are not smart. So with that logic as our compass: GO AVS!!
Pre-Lockout Avalanche Preseason records (cup years in BOLD):
2003-2004 : 4-2-1
2002-2003 : 2-5-0
2001-2002 : 1-5-0
2000-2001 5-2-1
1999-2000 : 4-4-1
1998-1999 : 2-6-1
1997-1998 : 4-2-2
1996-1997 : 3-3-2
1995-1996 : 3-5-1