Let's get this out of the way first: I think the NHL draft lottery is stupid. It was instituted to keep teams from intentionally tanking to get a good draft pick. You want to keep teams from tanking? Seed the non-playoff teams from best to worst record. In my world, the Dallas Stars would have the first pick in the draft - a reward for trying hard all year and just missing the potentially lucrative postseason.
But, it's not my world (hi again, Gary). Instead, teams are seeded from most-tank-adept to least-tank-adept. Then they have a 30-minute show (VERSUS, TSN) to pick ONE stupid team to move up 4 spots in the standings. Oh boy. Martha, make sure my nitroglycerine pills are handy, because I'm not sure I can handle this excitement. At least the league doesn't draw this out all summer. We'll know tonight where the Avalanche will be picking.
Here's the odds each team has at getting bumped up 4 spots:
|Boston (from TOR)||2.7%|
|Colorado (conditional/optional from STL)||1.5%|
So, let's see if I can take a swing at these numbers...
The Avs have an 18.8% chance at picking first overall, a 42% chance of staying in 2nd (if Edmonton or a team from Columbus or lower wins) and a 39.2% chance of dropping to 3rd (if Florida, New York, Ottawa or Atlanta use their balls to improve their station in life). Since those numbers add up to 100%, I'm going to assume I have that right.
As for the St Louis pick, odds are fairly small that anything will change with numero onze. The Blues have a 1.5% chance of winning the lottery. If that happens, their #11 pick becomes a #7 pick and the Blues can (and probably would) defer the trade until next year. Meanwhile, if Carolina, Calgary or Dallas win the lottery (2.4% chance total), they'll leapfrog ahead of St Louis, bumping the Avs pick to #12.
With that, I need to get this slide rule back to Mike before he realizes it's missing.