Study: NHL Defensemen Drafted in the Top 10 Since 2003

We've all heard the reasoning - taking defensemen too early in the first round is a bad idea because they take so much longer to develop and have a higher likelihood of being a bust. But is this really true? When you take a defenseman early, what sort of player are you likely to get?

To answer these questions, I decided to conduct a study on the top 10 picks from the past 10 drafts. With technology changing how scouting is done, I didn't want to go too far back, and besides, stopping at 2003 meant that all the defensemen in question made their debut in the post-lockout NHL. By limiting the study in this way, I removed a number of variables while still providing an adequate sample size.

Excluded Players

Since 2003, there have been 33 defensemen drafted in the top 10. Of those, 9 have yet to play in an NHL game.

Year	Pick	Name	Team	League
'10	10	Dylan McIlrath	NYR	WHL
'12	2	Ryan Murray	CBJ	WHL
'12	4	Griffin Reinhart	NYI	WHL
'12	5	Morgan Rielly	TOR	WHL
'12	6	Hampus Lindholm	ANA	SEL-Jr.
'12	7	Mathew Dumba	MIN	WHL
'12	8	Derrick Pouliot	PIT	WHL
'12	9	Jacob Trouba	WPG	USHL
'12	10	Slater Koekkoek	TBL	OHL

Of the 24 defensemen that remain, two were busts and one was tragically killed before establishing himself in the NHL (Bourdon). It should be noted that Hickey is currently playing for NYI, so perhaps calling him a bust is premature, but he was a waiver-wire pickup who took 6 years to make the NHL and is only being given limited minutes. Valabik is no longer in the league.

Year	Pick	Name	Draft	League	GP	G	A	Pts
'04	10	Boris Valabik	ATL	OHL	80	0	7	7
'05	10	Luc Bourdon	VAN	QMJHL	36	2	0	2
'07	4	Thomas Hickey	LAK	WHL	39	1	3	4

That narrows the field to the 21 serviceable defensemen who will be the focus of this study.

Study Data

The charts are sortable. Just click on the words in the blue box, and the table will sort to that column.

Draft and Team Information:

Year	Pick	Name	League	Entry	D. Yrs.	Draft	Current	Same
'03	7	Ryan Suter	USDP	'05	2	NSH	MIN	N
'03	8	Braydon Coburn	WHL	'06	3	ATL	PHI	N
'03	9	Dion Phaneuf	WHL	'05	2	CGY	TOR	N
'04	3	Cam Barker	WHL	'06	2	CHI	VAN	N
'04	9	Ladislav Smid	ELH	'06	2	ANA	EDM	N
'05	3	Jack Johnson	USDP	'07	2	CAR	CBJ	N
'05	9	Brian Lee	HS-MN	'08	3	OTT	TBL	N
'06	1	Erik Johnson	USDP	'07	1	STL	COL	N
'07	5	Karl Alzner	WHL	'08	1	WSH	WSH	Y
'07	10	Keaton Ellerby	WHL	'09	2	FLA	LAK	N
'08	2	Drew Doughty	OHL	'08	0	LAK	LAK	Y
'08	3	Zach Bogosian	OHL	'08	0	ATL	WPG	Y
'08	4	Alex Pietrangelo	OHL	'10	2	STL	STL	Y
'08	5	Luke Schenn	WHL	'08	0	TOR	PHI	N
'09	2	Victor Hedman	SEL	'09	0	TBL	TBL	Y
'09	6	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	SEL-Jr.	'10	1	PHX	PHX	Y
'09	9	Jared Cowen	WHL	'11	2	OTT	OTT	Y
'10	3	Erik Gudbranson	OHL	'11	1	FLA	FLA	Y
'11	4	Adam Larsson	SEL	'11	0	NJD	NJD	Y
'11	9	Dougie Hamilton	OHL	'12	1	BOS	BOS	Y
'11	10	Jonas Brodin	SEL	'12	1	MIN	MIN	Y

• Entry = First year the player had over 10GP in the NHL. For example, " '05 " means the 2005-'06 season.
• D. Yrs. = "Development Years", or full seasons played at a minor league level before making the NHL full-time.
• Same = Indicates if player is still with his draft team or if he has been traded/signed elsewhere.

One of the things that stands out is how few defensemen taken prior to 2007 are still on their draft teams. Perhaps these players just have had more time to be traded, but the fact that none of them are where they started implies that their organizations either lost patience with their development or were forced to move them somewhere along the way. None of these players (except perhaps Suter) became the blueliner their teams expected them to be when their names were called at the draft.

However, there seems to have been a shift around 2008 in a number of ways. Very few of them have been traded, and more importantly, they've required fewer years of development. Doughty, Bogosian, Schenn, Hedman, and Larsson all jumped straight to the show instead of going back to Juniors or Sweden, and even Pietrangelo was given two NHL stints prior to starting in on his ELC in '10. While leaving a player in minors for 2+ years was customary before '08, only Jared Cowen was given the same treatment afterwards. Also, there was a shift from the WHL and USDP providing the top defensive players to the OHL and SEL during this time. It should be noted that most of the 2012 draftees were from the WHL.

Career Numbers:

Year	Pick	Name	Team	EXP	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG	+/-	PIM	PIM/S	S	S%
'03	7	Ryan Suter	MIN	8	590	42	228	270	0.46	45	420	53	917	4.6
'03	8	Braydon Coburn	PHI	7	493	31	109	140	0.28	30	425	61	688	4.5
'03	9	Dion Phaneuf	TOR	8	600	106	234	340	0.57	1	801	100	1,717	6.2
'04	3	Cam Barker	VAN	7	310	21	75	96	0.31	-29	290	41	385	5.5
'04	9	Ladislav Smid	EDM	7	457	10	53	63	0.14	-39	375	54	292	3.4
'05	3	Jack Johnson	CBJ	6	408	39	118	157	0.38	-90	283	47	691	5.6
'05	9	Brian Lee	TBL	5	209	5	31	36	0.17	-37	124	25	159	3.1
'06	1	Erik Johnson	COL	5	329	27	104	131	0.40	-31	207	41	671	4.0
'07	5	Karl Alzner	WSH	5	263	5	39	44	0.17	17	77	15	206	2.4
'07	10	Keaton Ellerby	LAK	4	160	2	18	20	0.13	-16	86	22	129	1.6
'08	2	Drew Doughty	LAK	5	364	49	135	184	0.51	18	283	57	689	7.1
'08	3	Zach Bogosian	WPG	5	297	34	69	103	0.35	-42	237	47	635	5.4
'08	4	Alex Pietrangelo	STL	3	224	29	92	121	0.54	25	73	24	470	6.2
'08	5	Luke Schenn	PHI	5	357	17	69	86	0.24	-20	251	50	493	3.4
'09	2	Victor Hedman	TBL	4	258	16	73	89	0.34	-8	245	61	349	4.6
'09	6	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	PHX	3	178	17	50	67	0.38	8	82	27	298	5.7
'09	9	Jared Cowen	OTT	2	90	6	12	18	0.20	-3	68	34	66	9.1
'10	3	Erik Gudbranson	FLA	2	104	2	10	12	0.12	-41	125	63	125	1.6
'11	4	Adam Larsson	NJD	2	102	2	22	24	0.24	-3	32	16	98	2.0
'11	9	Dougie Hamilton	BOS	1	42	5	11	16	0.38	4	14	14	83	6.0
'11	10	Jonas Brodin	MIN	1	45	2	9	11	0.24	3	10	10	51	3.9
		Average		5	280	22	74	96	0.31	-10	215	41	439	4.6

• Exp = "Experience" or number of seasons played in the league.
• PPG = "Points Per Game"
• PIM/S = "Penalties in Minutes per Season"
  

Most of these defensemen aren't huge scorers. Phaneuf, Suter, Doughty, and Pietrangelo are the only ones over .5 PPG, which would equate to a 40+ pt season across an 82 game span. The average of .31PPG translates to only around a 25 pt season. However, these defensemen launch over 1.5 shots per game, so they are at least getting the puck on the net with some consistency. They also typically stay out of the box, a blessing for most teams since these players are often top penalty killers.

2012-13 Season:

Year	Pick	Name	Team	GP	G	A	P	PPG	TOI	Corsi	QoC	Rel QoC	OZ-St%	OZ-Ch%
'03	7	Ryan Suter	MIN	48	4	28	32	0.67	27:16	-2.56	0.204	2nd	49.9	-5.6
'03	8	Braydon Coburn	PHI	33	1	4	5	0.15	22:36	-7.22	0.773	5th	40.5	3.8
'03	9	Dion Phaneuf	TOR	48	9	19	28	0.58	25:10	-18.16	3.173	1st	41.3	1.1
'04	9	Ladislav Smid	EDM	48	1	3	4	0.08	20:19	-13.27	0.561	2nd	47.9	3.4
'05	3	Jack Johnson	CBJ	44	5	14	19	0.43	25:58	-9.45	0.716	2nd	44.6	8.3
'06	1	Erik Johnson	COL	31	0	4	4	0.13	20:45	2.42	0.280	1st	49.6	2.0
'07	5	Karl Alzner	WSH	48	1	4	5	0.10	20:57	-2.76	0.464	3rd	46.1	-1.4
'07	10	Keaton Ellerby	LAK	35	0	3	3	0.09	14:17	-5.20	-0.683	7th	58.3	-6.8
'08	2	Drew Doughty	LAK	48	6	16	22	0.46	26:23	14.84	-0.155	2nd	54.9	-2.0
'08	3	Zach Bogosian	WPG	33	5	9	14	0.42	23:07	-3.29	1.047	2nd	45.3	4.2
'08	4	Alex Pietrangelo	STL	47	5	19	24	0.51	25:06	-4.71	1.064	2nd	50.3	-2.5
'08	5	Luke Schenn	PHI	47	3	8	11	0.23	21:51	-1.07	1.320	2nd	45.8	2.0
'09	2	Victor Hedman	TBL	44	4	16	20	0.45	22:39	-3.38	0.866	2nd	42.5	7.4
'09	6	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	PHX	48	3	21	24	0.50	25:05	1.22	2.268	1st	45.8	3.3
'10	3	Erik Gudbranson	FLA	32	0	4	4	0.13	18:44	-4.65	-0.647	6th	55.3	-3.0
'11	4	Adam Larsson	NJD	37	0	6	6	0.16	18:06	-13.20	-1.087	5th	49.0	1.1
'11	9	Dougie Hamilton	BOS	42	5	11	16	0.38	17:07	14.33	-1.298	6th	53.5	-2.1
'11	10	Jonas Brodin	MIN	45	2	9	11	0.24	23:12	1.88	0.397	1st	46.9	-2.4
		Average		42	3	11	14	0.32	22:09	-3.01	0.515	3rd	48.2	0.6

• Fancy stats = behindthenet.ca, regular stats = NHL.com
• Corsi = A measurement of possession. Positive number = mostly on offense, negative number = mostly on defense.
• QoC = "Quality of Competition". Positive number = faced opposition's top players, negative number = faced weaker players.
• Rel QoC = "Relative Quality of Competition". Quality of competition as compared to their defensive teammates. Roughly gives an idea what pairing they were on. Typically 1st/2nd = Top Pair, 3rd/4th = second pair, 5th/6th = 3rd pair, 7th and lower = injury fill-in. Can be highly affected by teammate injuries.
• OZ-St% = "Offensive Zone Start Percentage", or how often a player was started in the offensive zone. Numbers above 50% = sheltered minutes, numbers below 50% = more defensive minutes.
• OZ-Ch% = "Offensive Zone Change Percentage", or how much player gains or loses possession. Positive numbers = typically gains possession and transitions from defense to offense on their shift. Negative numbers = often lose possession and transition from offense to defense on their shift.

***First of all, please note that Cowen, Barker, and Lee played less than half the season due to injuries or being waived, so they were not included in this chart.***

It's amazing how many minutes these players can eat. When the average TOI is upwards of 22 minutes a game and only 4 of them are receiving under 20, it's clear they're a major part of their respective clubs. They're also on defense for most of that time, yet the're still able to gain possession and finish in the offensive zone more often than not. On top of that, almost all of them are on their team's top defensive pair, so they're facing off against the opposition's mid- to top-tier players every night. In sort, all but around 5 of these blueliners would be considered a Top 4 player on any team in the league.

Final Thoughts

This analysis shows that around 13 of the 24 blueliners drafted in the top 10 over the past decade that have played in the NHL can be considered bona-fied Top 4 defensemen. Four more (Cowen, Hamilton, Larsson, and Gudbranson) will likely achieve that status in the next couple years as they develop. With this in mind, selecting a defenseman with one of the first 10 picks yields around a 70% chance that they'll end up on the second pairing or better.

Also, given the recent trend of top defensive prospects being ready at a younger age, they're having more luck becoming the "franchise defensemen" they were billed to be. As a result, fewer organizations seem to be losing patience and trading them away before they hit their stride. Perhaps the influence of the OHL and SEL are responsible for this change, but the WHL has produced many good players in the past and has the ability to reestablish itself as the top league for defensemen if the Class of 2012 works out.

As for the Avalanche, they're expected to select top ranked defensive prospect Seth Jones this summer. He's being billed as a complete package, and there are some experts who believe he could be NHL ready as early as next year.

He is a WHL prospect, and over the past decade, only one such player has instantly made the jump (Schenn). Cowen is the only other prospect drafted from the W in the top 10 since 2008, and he required 2 additional years of Juniors before joining the Sens. However, the Avalanche blueline is very weak. There is a possibly that Jones could earn a spot out of camp, but he'd likely need to be treated like Larsson and Hamilton and given limited, protected minutes against weaker competition for a few years. Expecting him to become the next Brodin and instantly jump onto the top pair likely isn't going to happen, especially because we don't have a Suter-type player to pair with him.

Even if we have to wait a few years for him to start contributing big minutes, if the past is any indication, he'll likely end up as a strong member of our top defensive pair in a relatively short amount of time. He won't have the instant impact that a forward will, but the odds of him becoming a highly reliable - if not franchise - defenseman are still in his favor.