Study: NHL Forwards Drafted in the Top 5 Since 2004

Last week, I posted a study on the defensemen drafted in the top 10 over the past 10 years. In the end, I determined that there was around a 70% chance that a prospect taken in that range would develop into a top pairing player.

Today, we'll look at the top forwards taken in a similar time-frame.

In the interest of eliminating as many variables as possible, all of the players we'll be looking at are from the post-lockout NHL. In my original data collection, I included the 2003 forwards, but since Eric Staal and Nathan Horton both had rookie years before the rule changes, I excluded that draft year (including Thomas Vanek, who didn't have his rookie season until post-lockout) from the data. Therefore, the study begins in 2004 and covers 9 drafts instead of 10. I also found that there was a sufficient enough sample size to limit my data to the Top 5 picks instead of the Top 10. Since more forwards than blueliners have been drafted in this range over the past few years, I was able to narrow my focus and make it more relevant to the 1st Overall pick, a luxury I didn't have when studying defensemen.

Excluded Players

There have been 29 forwards drafted in the Top 5 over the past 9 years. Of those, only 1 player has yet to start his ELC (Strome). Also, Niederreiter is still under contract with the Islanders and eligible for a call-up, but he did not play in the NHL this year.

This leaves 27 players that will be the focus of this study.

Study Data

The charts are sortable. Just click on the words in the blue box, and the table will sort to that column.

Draft and Team Information:

• Entry = First year the player had over 10GP in the NHL. For example, " '05 " means the 2005-'06 season.
• D. Yrs. = "Development Years", or full seasons played at a minor league level before making the NHL full-time.
• Same = Indicates if player is still with his draft team or if he has been traded/signed elsewhere.

Career Numbers:

• Exp = "Experience" or number of seasons played in the league.
• G/G = "Goals Per Game"
• P/G = "Points Per Game". Abbreviation altered to avoid confusion with "Power Play Goals" (PPG).
• PIM/S = "Penalties in Minutes per Season"
• MAG/S = "Man Advantage Goals Per Season", also called Power Play Goals. Name altered to avoid confusion with acronym of "Points Per Game" (PPG)
• S/G = "Shots Per Game"

The career averages for this set of forwards are quite telling. 0.32 G/G translates to 26 goals in an 82-game season, and .74 P/G equates to 61 points. They take around 3 shots a night, and at a 12.2% shooting percentage, they're due for a goal approximately once every 3 games. Many of them, especially the 1st Overalls, are also big contributors on the power play.

It appears that for the most part, their draft rankings have been very accurate as well. Apart from RNH and to an extent, Yakupov, the first overalls have outstanding numbers. Malkin and Ryan also have incredible stats, but they are still below Ovechkin and Crosby respectively. The only "miss" was Toews at 3rd overall since his numbers are superior to Jordan Staal's (2nd overall in '06) in every category except short-handed goals.

Center Face-off Data

• FO/S = "Face-offs Per Season"

The average for face-offs is a bit low at only 46.4%. Only 5 of the 15 centers have a career average above 50%, although Matt Duchene will likely join that group by next year based on how his numbers have been trending. Unsurprisingly, the centers with the most face-offs per season are also typically the ones with the best overall percentages.

2012-13 Season:

• Fancy stats = behindthenet.ca, regular stats = NHL.com
• GPG = "Goals Per Game"
• PPG = "Points Per Game"
• TSR-PPG = "Team Scoring Rank by Points Per Game", or where the player finished in comparison to their teammates when sorted by points per game.
• Corsi = A measurement of possession. Positive number = mostly on offense, negative number = mostly on defense.
• QoC = "Quality of Competition". Positive number = faced opposition's top players, negative number = faced weaker players.
• OZS% = "Offensive Zone Start Percentage", or how often a player was started in the offensive zone. Numbers above 50% = sheltered minutes, numbers below 50% = more defensive minutes.
• OZC% = "Offensive Zone Change Percentage", or how much player gains or loses possession. Positive numbers = typically gains possession and transitions from defense to offense on their shift. Negative numbers = often lose possession and transition from offense to defense on their shift.

Final Thoughts