Estimating the Value of Paul Stastny

It's no secret that the Avs now have more centers than they know what to do with.

After drafting Nathan MacKinnon 1st Overall a month ago, the number of Top 6-caliber centermen employed by the organization has grown to four: MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Ryan O`Reilly, and Paul Stastny. Coach Patrick Roy has already announced a preliminary forward lineup with Duchene and O'Reilly (as a left wing) on the top line, Stastny on the second, and MacKinnon starting on the third. However, it's clear that having a 1st overall on the 3rd line is a temporary solution at best. Sooner or later, he's going to earn a spot on the top 2 lines.

Even if O'Reilly sticks as a wing, Duchene, Stastny, and MacKinnon will all be vying for only two center spots. Duchene just signed a 5-year extension with the team, and it's highly unlikely that MacKinnon will be moved any time soon. All signs indicate that those two are the future of the Avs, so where does this leave Stastny? The soon-to-be 28-year-old will be a UFA this coming summer, which means a decision needs to be made soon on whether re-sign him or move him before the deadline.

Which makes more sense for the Avs? What is Stastny's worth both as a free-agent and as a trade piece?

Let's start by looking at some stats.

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Comparables

First off, let's concentrate on how much he scores. As a forward, the higher his points-per-game rate is, the higher his value will be.

Chart 1: Career Points Per Game

PPG Rk	Age	Name	GP	G	A	P	GPG	APG	PPG
19	26	Anze Kopitar	522	173	303	476	0.331	0.58	0.912
20	25	Jonathan Toews	408	167	205	372	0.409	0.502	0.912
21	29	Eric Staal	690	268	359	627	0.388	0.52	0.909
22	33	Brad Richards	900	256	560	816	0.284	0.622	0.907
23	36	Jarome Iginla	1232	530	576	1106	0.43	0.468	0.898
24	29	Alexander Semin	513	210	242	452	0.409	0.472	0.881
25	31	Marian Gaborik	769	336	338	674	0.437	0.44	0.876
26	25	Claude Giroux	333	91	200	291	0.273	0.601	0.874
27	23	John Tavares	291	112	137	249	0.385	0.471	0.856
28	37	Patrik Eliáš	1090	375	555	930	0.344	0.509	0.853
29	28	Paul Stastny	467	135	263	398	0.289	0.563	0.852
30	22	Taylor Hall	171	65	80	145	0.38	0.468	0.848
31	33	Vincent Lecavalier	1037	383	491	874	0.369	0.473	0.843
32	33	Henrik Sedin	940	182	610	792	0.194	0.649	0.843
33	33	Daniel Sedin	906	291	467	758	0.321	0.515	0.837
34	29	Thomas Vanek	585	250	238	488	0.427	0.407	0.834
35	34	Alex Tanguay	922	249	513	762	0.27	0.556	0.826
36	29	Rick Nash	718	310	279	589	0.432	0.389	0.82
37	41	Ray Whitney	1261	376	656	1032	0.298	0.52	0.818
38	29	Zach Parise	550	212	236	448	0.385	0.429	0.815
39	28	Corey Perry	574	220	245	465	0.383	0.427	0.81

Yes, you read that right. Paul Stastny is #29 in points per game among ALL active NHL forwards with at least 100 pts. True, most of them are assists, but his goals per game rate is still higher than Richards, Giroux, Tanguay, and H. Sedin in this range. He's also second to only Patrick Kane when it comes to American scorers. To say he's a member of some very elite company when it comes to career numbers is an understatement.

However, value is often determined more on what a player has done recently. With that in mind, let's take a look at his numbers over the past 2 seasons. This chart ranks him in comparison to all forwards who scored at least 0.5 PPG across both 20+ games in 2011-12 and 12+ games in 2013. The fact that Stastny hit at least that mark twice in his past two seasons speaks to his consistency.

Chart 2: Points Per Game From 2011-12 and 2013

Rk	Age	Name	GP	G	A	Pts	GPG	APG	'12PPG	'13PPG	PPG
81	21	Ryan O'Reilly	110	24	51	75	0.218	0.464	0.679	0.690	0.682
82	25	Bobby Ryan	128	42	45	87	0.328	0.352	0.695	0.652	0.680
83	26	T.J. Oshie	110	26	48	74	0.236	0.436	0.675	0.667	0.673
84	30	Tomáš Plekanec	128	31	54	85	0.242	0.422	0.642	0.702	0.664
85	30	Mike Cammalleri	110	33	40	73	0.300	0.364	0.621	0.727	0.664
86	28	Alexander Steen	83	23	32	55	0.277	0.386	0.651	0.675	0.663
87	28	Ryan Kesler	94	26	36	62	0.277	0.383	0.636	0.765	0.660
88	32	Mike Fisher	110	34	38	72	0.309	0.345	0.708	0.553	0.655
89	37	Václav Prospal	130	28	57	85	0.215	0.438	0.671	0.625	0.654
90	27	Jeff Carter	103	47	20	67	0.456	0.194	0.618	0.688	0.650
91	28	Dustin Brown	128	40	43	83	0.313	0.336	0.659	0.630	0.648
92	27	Paul Stastny	119	30	47	77	0.252	0.395	0.671	0.600	0.647
93	20	Jeff Skinner	106	33	35	68	0.311	0.330	0.688	0.571	0.642
94	25	Bryan Little	122	31	47	78	0.254	0.385	0.622	0.667	0.639
95	24	David Perron	105	31	36	67	0.295	0.343	0.737	0.521	0.638
96	24	Wayne Simmonds	127	43	38	81	0.339	0.299	0.598	0.711	0.638
97	28	David Backes	130	30	52	82	0.231	0.400	0.659	0.583	0.631
98	26	Tyler Bozak	119	30	45	75	0.252	0.378	0.644	0.609	0.630
99	31	Dany Heatley	118	35	39	74	0.297	0.331	0.646	0.583	0.627
100	28	Jirí Hudler	123	35	42	77	0.285	0.341	0.617	0.643	0.626
101	27	Mike Richards	122	30	46	76	0.246	0.377	0.595	0.667	0.623
102	32	David Legwand	126	31	47	78	0.246	0.373	0.679	0.521	0.619
103	23	James van Riemsdyk	91	29	27	56	0.319	0.297	0.558	0.667	0.615
104	27	Nathan Horton	89	30	24	54	0.337	0.270	0.696	0.512	0.607
105	36	Shane Doan	127	35	42	77	0.276	0.110	0.633	0.563	0.606
106	31	Alexandre Burrows	127	41	35	76	0.323	0.087	0.65	0.511	0.598
107	22	Marcus Johansson	114	20	48	68	0.175	0.140	0.575	0.647	0.596
108	29	Derek Roy	122	24	48	72	0.197	0.172	0.55	0.667	0.590

Not quite as good, but there are still some very interesting names in there. Ranking in the 90s on this list implies that in an average year on an average team, Stastny is a 1st- or very good 2nd-line player.

However, Stastny's strengths don't stop with scoring. He's also highly skilled at gaining possession, and unlike most of the scorers above, Stastny has found himself starting his shifts in the defensive zone more often than not over the past two years. Here are some other forwards with similar minutes (less than 51% O-Zone starts and 20+ GP in 2012 and 2013). For the sake of formatting, only players who average 13+ minutes per night are shown.

Chart 3: Defensive Stats From 2011-12 and 2013

RK	Name	GP	TOI/60	QoC	Corsi	PDO	12OZS%	13OZS%	OZS%	OZF%	OZC%
74	Patrice Bergeron	123	14.05	-1.028	24.295	1030	47.6	42.4	45.0	49.8	4.8
76	Troy Brouwer	129	13.22	0.488	-4.530	986	46.7	43.4	45.1	45.9	0.9
78	Tomas Plekanec	128	13.41	0.386	-0.730	1000	42.8	47.6	45.2	47.6	2.4
79	Derek Roy	122	14.01	0.050	2.940	1008	48.9	41.7	45.3	50.8	5.5
80	T.J. Oshie	110	14.48	0.805	4.230	982	45.9	44.9	45.4	48.2	2.8
81	Brian Gionta	79	13.79	0.491	2.160	1002	43.9	47.2	45.6	48.4	2.8
87	Saku Koivu	121	13.60	0.605	0.910	1027.5	48.6	43.9	46.3	47.1	0.9
88	Christopher Higgins	112	13.11	-0.399	3.030	1002.5	46.6	46	46.3	49.7	3.4
89	Lee Stepniak	108	13.31	0.835	2.035	996	49.4	43.5	46.5	48.5	2.1
93	Paul Stastny	119	14.61	0.250	-0.870	976.5	50.7	42.5	46.6	51.8	5.2
99	Alex Tanguay	104	14.24	0.935	-7.205	996.5	49.6	45.2	47.4	47.1	-0.4
103	Adam Henrique	116	13.83	-0.465	8.130	982.5	47.4	47.9	47.7	47.8	0.1
105	Ryan Getzlaf	126	15.85	0.825	4.255	1002	47.7	47.6	47.7	51.8	4.1
107	Claude Giroux	125	14.83	0.568	4.400	991	48.1	47.3	47.7	49.2	1.5
109	Tomas Kopecky	127	13.07	0.247	-3.245	997.5	45.6	50.0	47.8	45.6	-2.2
114	R.J. Umberger	125	13.70	1.237	-8.020	1012.5	48.6	47.8	48.2	48.6	0.4
116	Jordan Staal	110	14.89	0.126	10.700	966.5	47.8	48.8	48.3	47.8	-0.5
122	Corey Perry	124	15.40	0.599	5.655	998.5	48.6	48.8	48.7	48.6	-0.1
125	David Perron	105	14.25	0.687	4.210	1012	47.3	50.8	49.1	47.3	-1.8

Players with similar PPG totals from the past 2 years (Chart 2) are in bold. Those players (Plekanec, Roy, Oshie, and Perron) will likely give us the best idea of Stastny's worth. To broaden the search, players from Chart 2 will also be included if applicable.

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Trade Value

In keeping with the 2 year theme, these are the players from Chart 2 who have been traded during that time.

Date	Comparable	Teams	Return
7/10/13	David Perron	STL-EDM	Magnus Paajarvi, 2014 2nd
7/5/13	Bobby Ryan	ANA-OTT	Jakob Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen, 2014 1st
4/2/13	Derek Roy	DAL-VAN	Kevin Connauton (D), 2013 2nd
7/2/12	Derek Roy	BUF-DAL	Steve Ott, Adam Pardy (D)
6/23/12	James van Reimsdyk	PHI-TOR	Luke Schenn (D)
2/23/12	Jeff Carter	CBJ-LAK	Jack Johnson (D), Cond. 2012 1st
1/12/12	Michael Cammalleri, Karri Ramo (G), 2012 5th	MTL-CGY	Rene Bourque, Patrick Holland (F), 2013 2nd
7/3/11	Dany Heatley	SJS-MIN	Martin Havlat
6/23/11	Jeff Carter	PHI-CBJ	Jakub Voracek, 2011 1st, 2011 3rd
6/23/11	Mike Richards, Rob Bordson (F)	PHI-LAK	Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmons, 2012 2nd

Arguably, the worst return with this crowd was a very solid prospect and a 2nd rounder for Derek Roy or David Perron. The one-for-one trades (JVR and Heatley) returned either a top 4 blueliner or a top 6 forward of a similar age. Otherwise, we are looking at a roster player + solid prospects and/or 1st/2nd round picks.

There is very little question that if Stastny is traded it will be for a defenseman due to the Avs needs at that position. Based on this list, in a one-to-one trade, I'd expect perhaps not an elite blueliner, but at least an All-Star coming back - someone in the Yandle or Phaneuf range. If a younger defenseman is brought in, more along the lines of Gardiner or Gudbranson, then a 1st or 2nd to sweeten the pot would be fair.

Either way, that is one heck of a return and could have a drastic influence on the team's overall success.

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Re-Sign Value

Name	Age	PPG	Cap	Years	Signed
Ryan O'Reilly	21	0.682	5.000	2	2013
T.J. Oshie	26	0.673	4.175	5	2012
Mike Fisher	32	0.655	4.200	2	2013
Dustin Brown	28	0.648	5.875	8	2013
Paul Stastny	27	0.647
Jeff Skinner	20	0.642	5.725	6	2013
Average	26	0.641	4.593	5
Bryan Little	25	0.639	4.700	5	2013
David Perron	24	0.638	3.812	4	2012
Wayne Simmonds	24	0.638	3.975	6	2013
David Backes	28	0.631	4.500	5	2011
Tyler Bozak	26	0.630	4.200	5	2013
Jirí Hudler	28	0.626	4.000	4	2012
James van Riemsdyk	23	0.615	4.250	6	2012
Nathan Horton	27	0.607	5.300	7	2013

Based on this chart, it's likely Stastny's next contract will be in the 5-year, $25 million ballpark. Unless he has an absolutely outstanding season, I doubt he makes much over $5 mil a year on his next contract.

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Conclusions

I honestly believe that by the mid-point of next season, Stastny will have surpassed many of these comparables. Based on his career numbers and his unsustainable low PDO over the past couple seasons (because 977 is DIFFERENT than 1000), a bounce-back year from Mr. Stastny wouldn't surprise me one bit. Add in a new coach, a contract year, and new linemates - Alex Tanguay and Gabriel Landeskog are a definite step up over who he's been playing with in the past few years - and I firmly expect the old Stastny to return, even if his offensive zone starts remain fairly low.

However, even if he holds steady at his current rate, he gives the Avs some options. His trade return would likely be very solid and address some key issues with the team, so if we are still in the playoff hunt by the deadline, it could be just the thing to push us over the edge. On the other hand, if we can find a way to fit him into the roster long-term, a fair $5 mil cap hit frees up $1.6 mil vs his current deal while still guaranteeing the Avs his consistent scoring, versatility, and veteran presence. It's a no-lose situation.... as long as a decision is made before free-agency begins next year. Losing someone like Paul Stastny to UFA would be a huge blow to the franchise.