Game 28 By the Numbers: Predators at Avalanche

Hi guys this is a new thing I'm going to start doing for as many games as I can. No guarantees that they're posted any earlier than the following day, but I'm going to briefly run down the stats from Tuesday night's home loss to the Predators. First at a team level, then whatever individual numbers I find interesting. Warning: There may be charts.

We see a lot of possession charts from War on Ice and from Hockeystats, but I think my favorite is the one found at Natural Stat Trick. I'll be using the 5v5 Corsi from them over the other options because it lets you see momentum swings much more easily.

The difference is, while the other charts borrow the idea from Extra Skater (PBUH) which shows a line graph of both team's Corsi-for, NST's version plots them against each other into a single pushing and pulling line graph. Here's the one from last night:

Hope you can see what I'm talking about here, why I prefer NST's graph for this. Though Nashville got off to a solid start, all game long the Avalanche slowly trended up, finishing +16 in even strength shot attempts.

Nashville rank 5th in score-adjusted Corsi this season, so outpossessing them is super nice to see. Limiting them to 40.9%, when Nashville's Up-1 CF% this season is 47.5% (puck on net)? Yes please. Well done! Here's a breakdown of each player's possession contribution (Score-adjusted), from @IneffectiveMath on Twitter, who you should totally be following because even though his blog posts are a little bit advanced, his Twitter discussions are absolutely accessible. The Avs are black.

5v5 Possession, Predators at Avalanche +4%. pic.twitter.com/J1j8YJMKsh

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) December 10, 2014

That "LA########ON" blob is Landeskog, MacKinnon, and I think Iginla. Interesting how much they were used together. Not the best night for Weber and Josi. It's difficult to tell now that ShiftChart is dead, but based on the shift charts at War On Ice, they mostly faced the MacKinnon line, with a side of Duchene.

So the takeaway from this one is that the Avalanche systematically out-possessed Nashville at even strength, but got shut out by Pekka Rinne because sometimes, you hit a bunch of posts and get shut out by Pekka Rinne. Take fewer stupid penalties, spend more time at even strength, and you give yourself more chances to get one through, for sure, but still.

Odds and ends

• Erik Johnson and Jan Hejda led the Avs in ice time, both over 23:00. Only Landeskog and Barrie's 20:00 came close.
• Roman Josi led both teams with 27:30.
• Jan Hejda's 32 shifts were the most on the Avs. He managed 0 shot attempts in any of them, despite being a neutral-to-positive possession player. #JustJanThings
• Nick Holden played more shorthanded (3:54) than he did at even strength (3:49).
• Nathan MacKinnon had 7 SOG and 12 total shot attempts. He was 60% at the dot. Best skater statistically in this one for the Avs, and it's not close.
• Filip Forsberg and James KNeal combined for 11 shot attempts, which were all on goal. Try missing once in a while, you shits.
• Mr. Irrelevant is awarded each game to any player with no impact on the events sheet. No shot attempts, no hits, no blocks, no points, nothing. (Ignoring plusminus because fuck plusminus.) This will not always be fair. Today's Mr. Irrelevant: Nick Holden.
• I watched the Predators feed and they interviewed Carter Hutton, backup goalie, during the game. He was great. He's a natural like PK Subban is for television. After hockey he totally could have a career there if he wanted it. At least a 90% Charisma-for and very insightful, none of this "we have to play our game and work hard in the dirty areas" media relations bollocks. Thumbs up!