A Proposed AHL and ECHL Realignment

Times are changing in minor league hockey.  If you happened to miss Thursday's announcement, 5 AHL teams are moving to California.  Here's a quick recap:

• San Jose's affiliate is moving from Worchester, MA to San Jose, CA
• Calgary's is moving from Glens Falls, NY to Stockton, CA
• Edmonton's is moving from Oklahoma City, OK to Bakersfield, CA
• LA's is moving from Manchester, NH to Ontario, CA
• Anaheim purchased the Norfolk Admirals and is moving them from Norfolk, VA to San Diego, CA

The New AHL

* = Relegated to ECHL
** = Promoted from ECHL
*** = Reinstated

For the new league, I set the attendance threshold at 5,000+ per game.  There was one Cali team that didn't make the mark, but since it was just realigned, I decided to leave that division as is.

-Interactive Map-

The biggest change to the league was the promotion of 8 ECHL teams and the reinstatement of the Houston Aeros.  The Fort Wayne Komets, Orlando Solar Bears, Manchester Monarchs, Wichita Thunder, Colorado Eagles, Evansville IceMen, Gwinnett Gladiators, and Florida Everblades have all proved over the past 5 years to be strong enough markets to support AHL franchises.  Surprisingly, most of them are non-traditional, including three teams from the South (Gwinnett is based just outside of Atlanta).  The Toledo Walleye and Missouri Mavericks also draw well over the 5,000 mark, but with affiliation constraints, I felt it best to leave them as the ECHL cash cows.

On the other hand, the Portland Pirates, Rockford IceHogs, Springfield Falcons, Hamilton Bulldogs, Albany Devils, Bridgeport Sound Tigers, Hartford Wolf Pack, Binghampton Senators, and Utica Comets - all more traditional markets - drew far worse.  None of them hit the 5,000 mark, so all 9 teams were relegated.

With affiliation, I tried to leave as many NHL-AHL pairings as possible intact.  As long as they stayed within the 3 hour travel limit and a more logical affiliation didn't come up - such as coupling the Chicago Wolves with the Chicago Blackhawks - I decided that it was in everyone's interest to just leave them be.  14 pairings, including the 5 new Cali ones, fell into this category.

For the last 16 NHL teams, 9 became affiliated with the new AHL clubs.  The remaining 7 were shuffled around a bit, but in the end, only 5 teams overall experienced an increase in travel time.  Most of this increase came because call-ups were now able to drive instead of fly, but their total travel still stayed under the 2:40 mark, and no single club's rate jumped more than an hour and a half.

On the flip side, I cut the number of teams that absolutely needed to fly prospects from 12 down to 9.  I also cut the required airport layovers from 11 to 4 by affiliating based on direct flight availability.  In total, I shaved 20.5 hours of travel time away.  Even with the 4:30 increase faced by those five unlucky clubs, a 16 hour savings is nothing to scoff at.

The league itself is now more spread out, but an increase of on average 562 spectators per game should help cover the additional cost.

New ECHL

* = Relegated to ECHL
*** = Reinstated

My first move when recreating the ECHL was to cut away the Elmira Jackets, Wheeling Nailers, and Brampton Beast since they failed to draw at least 3,000 fans.  An additional 8 clubs left to join the AHL, but 9 relegated ones took their place.  I also found three former AHL franchises (Oklahoma City Barons, Worcester Sharks, and the currently SPHL-affiliated Peoria Rivermen) that drew well enough to warrant another chance.  That created a 29 team league.

For the last team, I had a number of options, but based on my desire to create a Western ECHL Division that actually made sense, two defunct CHL markets stood out as the best choices:  Albuquerque and Denver.  Neither hit the 3,000 spectator mark I was hoping for, but New Mexico came closer with an average of 2,791.  From the sounds of it, a lack of advertising and questionable management were the biggest downfalls of the team, so I decided to take a chance by reinstating it, hoping for more stable ownership.  However, since it still posed a risk, I purposely affiliated it with the AHL/NHL pairing most likely to relocate it to Denver if it failed.  Unfortunately, this move meant that Anaheim/San Diego's affiliate became Allen, TX and their flight time beached the 3 hour mark.  Even with that inconvenience, I felt this was the most logical arrangement  for the long-term stability of the Western Division.  If at a later date Anaheim decides it wants to test a market like Portland, OR, then a switch involving the Avs could easily be made.

Once the 30 team league was formed, I began assigning affiliations based on the 3 hour guideline.  Since San Jose has zero travel between the AHL and NHL levels, it was only fair that took on the 6 hour travel to Alaska.  The number of newly-relegated New England teams created a bit of a glut, but direct flights from Hartford and Albany to the Florida markets helped alleviate the issue.  The 5:20 between Bridgeport and St. John's was the best I could manage, and Rapid City ended up as the best option for Bakersfield.  Apart from those teams and the aforementioned San Diego, all other partnerships fell within the 3 hour window quite comfortably and provide a unified, three-tier, North American professional hockey system.

Conclusions

First of all, I doubt anything like this ever comes to pass.  This sort of drastic realignment ignores ownership, roster construction, team success, internal politics, and a whole slew of other variables that would sink an endeavor this extensive.  However, it does illustrate that there are smaller changes that can be made to improve the leagues.

One of the absolute biggest takeaways is that there are a ton of outstanding non-traditional markets out there.  Of the 6 current AHL teams in New York, 4 of them are getting their butts thoroughly trounced attendance-wise by teams in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado.  That's not even taking into account the fact that the South has its own professional hockey league that has kept the lights on for over 10 years.  Laugh at the Panthers and Coyotes all you want - Southern Expansion is working.  So is growing the game to the Pacific and everywhere in between.  It's about time the AHL caught on, and I think they'll find even more success by further embracing central and southern markets.

I also think having a fully affiliated ECHL is the way to go.  It brings everyone under the same umbrella and streamlines the call-up process, plus it opens up the possibility of advertising or revenue sharing between the leagues.  Each AHL club suddenly has the ability to cultivate their own farm team as well, which hopefully raises the overall standard of play across the continent.  The benefit might not be incredibly apparent at the NHL level, but creating a stable, exciting, wide-reaching hockey product is only going to be good for the game.

No matter what else happens, it's great that AHL hockey is about to find a home in California.  It's a small step, but it opens up a ton of doors that can, and will, make this a better sport in the long run.