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NHL Tank Race 2015 - Dropping(s) in the Water

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Episode 8

Good morning and welcome back to NHL Tank Race 2015. Doc, Eddie, and Pierre will be giving us an update on our Arizona franchise, Lauren Gardner has a report from trackside, but first we are going to talk about racing statistics and some advances in that area over the past couple of years. We have two special guests. From the studios of our Toronto affiliate we have James Mirtle, and from his grandmother's basement, via Skype, Ryan Lambert. Welcome to the program.

Ryan, let's start with you. Advanced statistics started in baseball and have spread to almost every other sport in recent years. What is your take on the impact they are having on tank racing?

"Twiggy, it's huge. Anyone who doesn't buy into this 100% is an idiot. I'm not sure why they're calling it Advanced Stats. It's not all that complex. There's one number you need to know, Fenwisi 6x6 close %against. It's the only thing that's important. You can forget actual finish order if it doesn't match. The quality of the tank and tank crew is completely and totally captured by Fenwisi 6x6 close %against."

James, I take it you see this a bit differently.

"I do. There's a lot of nuance in the sport of tank racing, a lot of factors that need to be accounted for. What is a tank, really? It's a military vehicle designed to take and hold territory. It's a possession machine. Ryan brings up Fenwisi and..."

"...6x6 close %against"

"Yes, Ryan, Fenwisi 6x6 close %against and it's an important measure for sure."

Can you tell us what it is?

"Sure. Fenwisi, and I'll call it that for short, is a measure of the number of shots a tank attempts during a race. Shots can hit the target and explode, which is the hoped-for result, or can be duds, can miss the target entirely, or can blow up inside the firing tank for a multitude of reasons. Each of these is counted as a shot attempt."

So why is this important?

"A race is a highly dynamic environment. As we have said, possession is important, but it's difficult to measure in the fog of competition. A horde of bloggers have spent the equivalent of 37 years in their relatives' basements pouring over reams of numbers and 15 seasons of video, and have found an almost moderate correlation between possession and Fenwisi. So..."

"6x6 close %against. You can't forget that part. If you include all the data, the correlation is so low that even social scientists turn up their noses."

Thank you Ryan. James, so what I understand is that Fenwisi - let me consult my notes here - 6x6 close %against is used as a proxy for possession. We used to use Hit/Miss to evaluate tank performance. What's wrong with that?

"Would you put Ryan on ‘mute' for a moment?"

"Hey, wai..."

Got it, please continue.

"Hit/Miss doesn't tell the whole story. For that matter, neither does possession. You hear that possession is 9/10s of the law, here it's about 1/3. The second 1/3 of tank racing relates to the skill of the crew. Can they aim the gun? Can they shoot and move? With Fenwisi all shots are equal. A hit on a moving target from a moving tank at 2000 meters is equal to dropping a round inside your own tank while loading and having it blow up. Both are attempted shots. There's a movement in the Advanced Stats community to not count the rounds that cook off after a tank catches fire as shot attempts. I strongly support this. The final 1/3 in tank racing is the lottery - pure luck. You can have the best tank, the most competent crew, carry the field, but then someone else has lucky balls and you lose. We refer to that in the Advanced Stats community as a ‘Patently Disastrous Outcome' or PDO."

Ryan, you seem to have something to say about that.

"...ing put me on mute again I'll KILL you! Hit/Miss sucks! Fenwisi 6x6 close % ..."[click]

Hey Vic? I seem to have done something silly here. Can you get Ryan back on the line?

James, it looks like we're running out of time, but thanks for that insightful discussion. We'd also like to acknowledge our other guest, Ryan Lambert.

Now, let's go out to the track where Lauren Gardner has an update. Lauren?

"Thanks Twiggy. I have several big events to report. First, a retirement. State of Denial is sitting idle at the side of the course. It looks like they are out of the race. I was scheduled to talk to their Tank Designer, Chuck Fletcher, about the difficulties they've been having this season, but it looks, instead, like we may have a chance to talk about changes for next year. We also have had 2 new tanks join the race, Que Pasa Gato and Bruce's Deuce. Que Pasa Gato has been in the pits almost from the beginning of the race and just couldn't seem to get started. It looks like they're going now. Bruce's Deuce dropped in from the clear blue, without any warning at all. Trackside, this is Lauren Gardner."

Thanks Lauren. It's always sad to see a retirement. That's part of racing, but two new tanks could really jumble the field.

I'm hearing from Vic, our producer, that Doc, Eddie, and Pierre are back together and have a report. Doc?

"Mike Emrick here with Ed Olczyk, coming to you live from the NHL Tank Race 2015 Mobile Unit. We've been tracking the tank originally named Sleepless in Glendale, currently known as The 5th Piggie, and we are on northbound I-95 just after the merge with I-695 south of Baltimore, Maryland. You won't believe what we're seeing. There's another tank on the highway! For more on that, let's go to Pierre on the NHL Tank Race 2015 Scooter."

"Thaaanks Doc. I'm riding on the shoulder right next to the new tank, and it's impressive. It's red, black, and gold and has the name ‘Que Pasa Gato?' which is pretty clever as it translates from Spanish to ‘What's New Pussycat,' the name of a song by one of my favorite performers, Tom Jones from Wales in the UK. Wait a second, one of the hatches has opened and a member of the crew is climbing out, right here on the freeway. He's painted out ‘Pasa Gato?' and is now painting in a new word. First letter is a ‘b.' I'm thinking it's going to be ‘Que Bueno' although he messed up the spacing. Next letter is an ‘e.' They may need to fix that too. Bueno has a ‘u' before the ‘e.' So, it's Q-U-E-B-E... Doc, I don't have access to my Spanish dictionary on the NHL Tank Race 2015 Scooter, so I'm going to send it ba..." [cue the grotesque squishy crunching noise followed by static]

"Pierre, are you there? Eddie, did you see what happened?"

"Doc, it looks to me like they're doing some work on the bridge we're driving on, and Pierre just sort of disappeared."

"Twiggy, that's it for us. We're just about to enter the Fort McHenry Tunnel. You might want to call the Coast Guard and have them start probing for Pierre in the water of Ridgley's Cove near Swann Park."

Thanks Doc. Vic's on the phone with the Coast Guard now.

Turning to the race standings...

...our new entries have started out close to the back of the pack. Bruce's Deuce dropped into the race with a big movement then seemed to sink. Que Pasa Gato, now called "Quebe-something" - hopefully we can get an update on that from our NHL Tank Race 2015 Mobile crew - joined the race, made up some ground on the field, but has also fallen back. This was achieved while dicing with The 5th Piggie on northbound I-95. It's a tank race, folks. It doesn't have to make sense. We also have a new leader. The aforementioned 5th Piggie has powered into the lead and is doing some of the finest tanking we've seen all year. Buffing the Sword fell back rapidly, but has started to regain form, enough to hold second over Lubricious. I'm happy to report a sighting of THE Lost Italian. This tank jumped forward from the pack and blew past Forever '67 and the two are now battling for 4th. Cane Mutiny and Star(bux) are running clear in 5th and 6th respectively. From there we run into a jumble of tanks and it's hard to see who's where in all the dust and smoke. Finally we have Roy's Waldo and Department of Senatation finishing out the field. Both seem to be struggling.

That's it from us at the NHL Tank Race 2015 studios. I'd like to send our thanks to our video guests, James and Ryan, and to the Coast Guard for fishing what remains of Pierre out of the water. Next up on the network, except in the Mountain Time Zone, from Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, it's Twelve Ounce Curling. For everyone here, trackside, and on the road, thank you and have a great day.

Prior Episodes:

- Episode 1
- Episode 2
- Episode 3
- Episode 4
- Episode 5
- Episode 6
- Episode 7

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