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Avalanche Draft Lottery Preview: 35 Tickets to the McDavid Sweepstakes

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The Avalanche head into the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery with a chance at the 1st, 10th, or 11th overall pick.

Dennis Pajot/Getty Images


Tonight at 7:30 PM EST on CBC the fate of a number of NHL franchises will be determined by a number of bouncing ping pong balls.  The 2015 NHL Entry Draft is projected not only as one of the deepest drafts in years, but it's top prize, Connor McDavid is the best amateur prospect the NHL has seen since Sidney Crosby was drafted in 2005.  In other words, there's never been a better time for Patrick Roy's Avalanche to put their balls on the table.

The odds are against the Colorado Avalanche since their late season surge launched them past the San Jose Sharks andColumbus Blue Jackets on the final night of the regular season.  The Avalanche have a 3.5% chance at winning the 1st overall pick and the right to draft Connor McDavid himself.  They have an 88% chance of staying in the extremely talented Top 10 picks of the draft, and they have an 8.5% chance of falling to 11th overall.  Here's a look at the odds for all 14 eligible teams:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>NHL draft lottery probabilities for all 14 teams. The drawing will be around 8 p.m. Saturday. <a href="http://t.co/XM9QQ9r9Ed">pic.twitter.com/XM9QQ9r9Ed</a></p>&mdash; James Mirtle (@mirtle) <a href="https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/589033287995281408">April 17, 2015</a></blockquote>

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For the actual drawing, teams will have a number of predetermined 4 number combinations.  If your 4 number combination is drawn, you win!  Here's how many lucky combinations each team will have entering tonight's lottery.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Lottery combos by team: BUF 200, ARZ 135, EDM 115, TOR 95, CAR 85, NJ 75, PHI 65, CBJ 60, SJ 50, COL 35, FLA 30, DAL 25, LA 20, BOS 10</p>&mdash; Mike Harrington (@BNHarrington) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNHarrington/status/589116761112498176">April 17, 2015</a></blockquote>

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By winning their final game of the season against the Chicago Blackhawks, the Avalanche gave up 15 tickets to the McDavid sweepstakes, so Avs fans had better hope that one of the 35 we've got does the trick.  If you want to obsess over the draft and run simulations all night until the real thing happens, there's a place for that.  If you want to REALLY obsess and look for hidden codes in the number combinations, there's also a place for that.  Here's the full list of lottery combinations for McDavid eligible clubs.  Last but not least, here are the 35 winning lottery combinations for the Avalanche.

Combination Number #1 #2 #3 #4
8 1 2 3 11
16 1 2 4 9
34 1 2 6 10
47 1 2 8 10
66 1 2 13 14
84 1 3 5 13
106 1 3 8 14
125 1 4 5 9
134 1 4 6 10
216 1 6 9 10
235 1 7 8 13
249 1 7 12 13
356 2 4 6 12
437 2 6 9 11
463 2 7 10 12
486 2 8 13 14
519 3 4 6 10
552 3 5 6 7
607 3 6 10 12
612 3 6 11 14
654 3 9 10 13
745 4 7 9 13
759 4 8 9 12
781 4 9 13 14
791 4 12 13 14
808 5 6 9 13
823 5 7 8 12
854 5 8 12 14
870 5 10 12 14
871 5 10 13 14
881 6 7 8 14
889 6 7 10 13
945 7 8 12 14
991 9 10 12 14
997 10 11 12 13

If you ARE looking for omens in those numbers because you believe in that kind of thing well... I've got some bad news for you:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>If you&#39;re looking for an omen, combination No. 97 (McDavid&#39;s number) belongs to Philadelphia. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Flyers?src=hash">#Flyers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sabres?src=hash">#Sabres</a> <a href="http://t.co/nXNLACUzFU">http://t.co/nXNLACUzFU</a></p>&mdash; Mike Harrington (@BNHarrington) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNHarrington/status/589105487955828738">April 17, 2015</a></blockquote>

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Things we can be sure of:

  • If Toronto, Boston, or Los Angeles wins the lottery, then the whole thing is very obviously rigged.  An Arizona win would also be suspect given their team finances and McDavid's ability to potentially save the floundering franchise.
  • If the Dallas Stars win we should pack up shop because we'll never get through another regular season in the Central Division alive.
  • If the Oilers win McDavid will end up being a bust.
  • If Buffalo wins, Tim Murray will try and trade him for Ryan O'Reilly before being physically restrained by his coworkers.