FanPost

Who's afraid of the Seattle expansion draft?

With another expansion draft on the horizon, I thought it would be cool to organize the roster and determine who is safe and who could potentially be lost. Let me qualify this post by saying that the rules are not entirely clear, and it's possible that not everything here is correct. The nice thing about these posts is that they can be updated, and I can fix things if we're able to determine that anything is off.

I broke it down into two possibilities: (1) the draft is held in 2020, and (2) the draft is held in 2021. I have seen things that make me believe the latter is likely, but nothing is certain. Avs fans should keep their fingers crossed for 2020 though, as it makes things easier.

Noteworthy is that regardless of whether the expansion draft is in 2020 or 2021, anyone drafted or acquired via the Alex Kerfoot route (i.e. signed out of college) after this season will be safe. This means Jack Hughes (or whoever Ottawa's pick brings) will not have to be protected in either scenario.

Rules

As far as other rules relating to who is exposed or not, basically what it boils down to is this: Any player with two years of professional experience under an NHL contract is exposed. "What is a year of professional experience" you ask. Here is where it gets murky. As far as I can tell, this is 10 games played in any professional league with one exception - namely that if a player is eligible for an entry level slide, those games must be played in the NHL. "What is an entry level slide" you ask. Here you go (entry-level slide). Basically this comes into play for Ty Lewis, who had his contract slide last year, and Martin Kaut, who is likely to experience the same this year. For everyone else, just remember it's two years of professional hockey under an NHL contract.

Note that I haven't included everyone in the tables below and quite frankly included more names than necessary (e.g. Kovalenko, who will not be signing his NHL contract any time soon). However, I thought our top 25 should be mostly covered, so it is.

More Rules

There are a few more rules that teams need to follow. Namely:

  • One goalie must be exposed.
  • Two forwards that played 40 games the prior year (or 70 games in the two prior years combined) must be exposed.
  • One defenseman that played 40 games the prior year (or 70 games in the two prior years combined) must be exposed.
  • Teams can protect either (a) 8 skaters (any position) and 1 goalie, or (b) 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie.
  • All players with a no movement clause who do not waive such clause must be protected (Johnson and Landeskog for the Avs).
The requirements for forwards could actually get a little hazy with contracts for guys like Soderberg and Wilson set to expire. I would think that Compher, Calvert, and O'Connor might satisfy the requirement though. For defensemen, Cole is the easy solution for 2020, but 2021 could be trickier.

Seattle will have rules too, but we can leave it to them to figure those out.

Without further ado:

Expansion draft in 2020

Forwards Age League Exposed?
1 MacKinnon 23 NHL Y
2 Landeskog 25 NHL Y
3 Rantanen 21 NHL Y
4 Jost 20 NHL Y
5 Kerfoot 24 NHL Y
6 Kamenev 22 NHL Y
7 Andrighetto 25 NHL Y
8 Compher 23 NHL Y
9 Beaudin 21 AHL Y
10
O'Connor 22 NHL N
11 Shvyryov 20 AHL N
12 Lewis 20 AHL N
13 Barron 20 AHL N
14 Kovalenko 18 KHL N
15 Weiss 18 NCAA N
16 Ranta 18 NCAA N
17 Henry 19 WHL N
18 Kaut 18 AHL N
19 Bowers 19 NCAA N
20
Morrison 20 NCAA N

Defensemen Age League Exposed?
1 Johnson 30 NHL Y
2 Barrie 27 NHL Y
3 Zadorov 23 NHL Y
4 Girard 20 NHL Y
5 Meloche 21 AHL Y
6 Boikov 22 AHL Y
7 Timmins 20 AHL N
8 Makar 19 NCAA N

Going with 8 skaters here likely leaves Kerfoot, Kamenev, and any pick ups via free agency or trade out in the cold. On the other hand, protecting 7 forwards and 3 defensemen opens up the possibility that one of Barrie, Zadorov, Girard, or Meloche is lost.

Barrie's contract is up in 2020, Landeskog will be due in 2021, and there are a number of RFAs as well. This opens some additional questions. For now, I'll assume the roster stays the same for illustrative purposes, but do with that what you will.

As an add, I should mention that both Varlamov and Grubauer will be exposed no matter when the draft takes place, but Francouz would be safe this year. In 2021, all will be exposed.

Expansion draft in 2021

Forwards Age League Exposed? Explanation
1 MacKinnon 23 NHL Y
2 Landeskog 25 NHL Y
3 Rantanen 21 NHL Y
4 Jost 20 NHL Y
5 Kerfoot 24 NHL Y
6 Kamenev 22 NHL Y
7 Andrighetto 25 NHL Y
8 Compher 23 NHL Y
9 O'Connor 22 NHL Y
10 Shvyryov 20 AHL Y
11 Lewis 20 AHL Y
12 Beaudin 21 AHL Y
13 Barron 20 AHL Y
14 Kovalenko 18 KHL N All but certain he won't sign his contract this year
15 Weiss 18 NCAA N All but certain he won't sign his contract this year
16 Ranta 18 NCAA N All but certain he won't sign his contract this year
17 Henry 19 WHL N All but certain he won't sign his contract this year
18 Kaut 18 AHL Maybe If he plays 10 NHL games this year, then yes. Otherwise, no.
19 Bowers 19 NCAA Maybe If he signs and plays 10 NHL games this year, then yes. Otherwise, no.
20
Morrison 20 NCAA Maybe If he signs and plays 10 NHL or AHL games this year, then yes. Otherwise, no.

Defensemen Age League Exposed? Explanation
1 Johnson 30 NHL Y
2 Barrie 27 NHL Y
3 Zadorov 23 NHL Y
4 Girard 20 NHL Y
5 Timmins 20 AHL Y
6 Meloche 21 AHL Y
7 Boikov 22 AHL Y
8 Makar 19 NCAA Maybe If he signs and plays 10 NHL or AHL games this year, then yes. Otherwise, no.

The situation is largely the same as in 2020, except that more depth forwards and Timmins are now exposed. Timmins is the big name, which is probably the main reason why Avs fans should be hoping for 2020. Also, notice the "maybes" for this year. Kaut, Bowers, and Makar fall into that catergory, which is not desirable for Avs fans.

Conclusion

I don't really have one. The main thing is that I wanted to share my spreadsheet regarding who could be lost and who is safe. If Sakic asked me for my opinion on what to do, I certainly have some thoughts. However, I wanted this to be more informational and available as a reference. Happy to kick around some thoughts in the comments though if anyone reads this and is interested. SuckMyAvs out bitches!

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