FanPost

Stoned into submission: A new hope?

Okay so Stone went to Vegas and for those of you that read the comments you know that Sin City rubbed it in my face. It's okay though, because the Avs future is still bright. There are other players that can be signed who will make a big impact and help this team compete in the immediate future. Consider this the post-Stone, pre-draft lottery edition. Obviously things can change based on where Ottawa's pick falls, but I can't wait that long.

In addition to the removal of Mark Stone, I also wanted to incorporate a contract extension for Varly. At this point, it looks really risky to roll with Grubauer and Francouz, and I think Sakic may make the decision to bring Varly back. That obviously eats into the cap space that can be used elsewhere, which changes the approach to things a bit.

That's it for the preamble except to say that this one has a 4% annual cap increase assumption. I think it's reasonable but who knows.

2019/2020

The biggest addition this year will probably be Makar, but he will be rivaled in this scenario by Kaapo Kakko. I'm not getting too greedy and assuming Hughes this time around. Some may look at the number two pick as a disappointment based on the buildup. Tell me you wouldn't be pumped to get this kid though. In the end, Duchene brings Kakko, Girard, Kamenev, Bowers, etc. Not too bad.

I am also advocating the Avs bring in Kevin Hayes. The more I see him and analyze what he can bring, the more I like him. He can score, he can kill penalties, and he is becoming a monster from a possession standpoint. Plus, for those who care about size, he brings that element as well. The Avs have cap space, and this is (in my opinion) the top guy available who would fit with the team. I urge you to look into him a bit more before you pass judgment. Yes it's possible this season is an anomaly, but I tend to think he has made strides that will stick around.

As is the case in other scenarios, this one also involves a Tyson Barrie trade. I'm not going to go into why I feel Barrie should be traded (that is here though if you're interested). In this case, New Jersey gives up one of its top prospects and their first rounder to get him. They are going to need to sell Hall on staying, so I think it's a big possibility that they go for a guy like Barrie (i.e. a guy who can help immediately), even if it means giving up part of their future in a guy like McLeod and their first.

Otherwise, here is a summary of the off-season moves:

1. Barrie and Calvert traded to New Jersey for McLeod and a first round pick

2. Compher traded for a pick

3. Extend Rantanen, Kerfoot, Kamenev, Zadorov, Graves, and Varlamov

4. The draft brings Kakko and Broberg (the latter goes to the Eagles and plays with Timmins)

5. Hunter Jones is also drafted but is years away from being an NHL goalie

6. Sign Kevin Hayes in free agency

7. Kaut and Makar become full-time NHL players

Here is the roster and cap situation:

Salary Cap 83,000,000
Line/Pairing Player Position Cap Hit Shoots Contract Through Extensions RFA/UFA Notes
1 MacKinnon C, RW 6,300,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
1 Landeskog LW 5,571,429 Left 2020/2021 2020/2021 UFA
1 Rantanen RW 8,750,000 Left 2018/2019 2024/2025 UFA Extended 6 years
2 Hayes C 7,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA Signed as a free agent (6 years)
2 Kerfoot C, LW 3,000,000 Left 2018/2019 2022/2023 UFA Extended 4 years
2 Kakko RW 925,000 Right 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA Drafted #2 overall
3 Jost C, LW, RW 885,833 Left 2019/2020 2019/2020 RFA
3 Kaut LW, RW 925,000 Right 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA Becomes a full-time NHL player
3 McLeod RW 863,333 Right 2020/2021 2020/2021 RFA Acquired in trade
4 Soderberg C, LW 4,750,000 Left 2019/2020 2019/2020 UFA
4 Kamenev C 1,100,000 Left 2018/2019 2020/2021 RFA Extended 2 years
4 Nieto LW, RW 1,975,000 Left 2019/2020 2019/2020 UFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
1 Girard LD 728,333 Left 2019/2020 2019/2020 RFA
1 Johnson RD 6,000,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Zadorov LD 3,750,000 Left 2018/2019 2022/2023 UFA Extended 4 years
2 Makar RD 925,000 Right 2020/2021 2020/2021 RFA Becomes a full-time NHL player
3 Graves LD 1,450,000 Left 2018/2019 2021/2022 UFA Extended 3 years
3 Cole LD 4,250,000 Left 2020/2021 2020/2021 UFA
N/A Barberio LD 1,450,000 Left 2019/2020 2019/2020 UFA
1 Varlamov G 6,000,000 N/A 2018/2019 2021/2022 UFA Extended 3 years
2 Grubauer G 3,333,333 N/A 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA

Total Cost 72,582,261
Dead Money 1,500,000
Cap Space 8,917,739

Landeskog MacKinnon Rantanen
Kerfoot Hayes Kakko
Kaut Jost McLeod
Kamenev Soderberg Nieto

Girard Johnson
Zadorov Makar
Graves Cole

Varlamov
Grubauer

2020/2021

As is often the case with these, the heavy lifting is done. With Makar, Kakko, Hayes, and McLeod being added to the team (along with the prospects currently in the system, the addition of the Bromeister, and NJ's first), the Avs are set up for the now and the future. We fans will have had another season to pull for our Avs while also hoping for a lottery pick, and I think this time the former is more successful.

The most exciting thing to happen this year is that Cole is either bought out or traded. I'm assuming a buyout in this instance, as the cap space is quantifiable.

The other notable addition to this post is the strategy with respect to the expansion draft. I am still assuming a Barrie trade is a huge part of positioning for the draft, but now I am also assuming that Timmins is not exposed, since it appears he may not play this year. Additionally, the turnover in the forward group makes satisfying the exposure requirements a little more difficult. To solve this issue, Sakic needs to give Nieto a new contract. More on the expansion draft under the next year heading.

Here is a summary of the moves:

1. Extend Jost, Girard, and Nieto

2. Bowers replaces Soderberg, who either leaves in free agency or is traded during the prior year

3. Broberg and Timmins become full-time NHL players (ELC applies for Broberg to prior year)

4. Cole bought out or traded (bye Felicia)

Here is the roster and cap situation:

Salary Cap 86,320,000
Line/Pairing Player Position Cap Hit Shoots Contract Through Extensions RFA/UFA Notes
1 MacKinnon C, RW 6,300,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
1 Landeskog LW 5,571,429 Left 2020/2021 2020/2021 UFA
1 Rantanen RW 8,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Hayes C 7,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Kerfoot C, LW 3,000,000 Left 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Kakko RW 925,000 Right 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
3 Jost C, LW, RW 4,000,000 Left 2019/2020 2023/2024 RFA Extended 4 years
3 Kaut LW, RW 925,000 Right 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
3 McLeod RW 863,333 Right 2020/2021 2020/2021 RFA
4 Kamenev C 1,100,000 Left 2020/2021 2020/2021 RFA
4 Bowers C, LW 925,000 Left 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA Replaces Soderberg
4 Nieto LW, RW 2,450,000 Left 2019/2020 2021/2022 UFA Extended 2 years
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
1 Girard LD 5,000,000 Left 2019/2020 2024/2025 RFA Extended 5 years
1 Johnson RD 6,000,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Zadorov LD 3,750,000 Left 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Makar RD 925,000 Right 2020/2021 2020/2021 RFA
3 Broberg LD 925,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA Becomes a full-time NHL player
3 Timmins RD 925,000 Left 2020/2021 2020/2021 RFA Becomes a full-time NHL player
N/A Graves LD 1,450,000 Left 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
1 Varlamov G 6,000,000 N/A 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
2 Grubauer G 3,333,333 N/A 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA

Total Cost 72,768,095
Dead Money 2,250,000
Cap Space 11,301,905

Landeskog MacKinnon Rantanen
Kerfoot Hayes Kakko
Kaut Jost McLeod
Bowers Kamenev Nieto

Girard Johnson
Zadorov Makar
Broberg Timmins

Varlamov
Grubauer

2021/2022

There are some extensions here, but the big issue is the expansion draft. With Barrie gone and Timmins exempt, the real question on the back end becomes how will the exposure requirements be met? Luckily the team played Graves all year in 2019/2020, so he becomes the guy. Everyone else is either protected or exempt. There are similar issues on the forward side. In short though, the team is in amazing shape for the expansion draft. Below is a summary, and here is a refresher on the rules.

Protected forwards: MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, Hayes, Jost, McLeod, Kerfoot

Protected defensemen: Girard, Johnson, Zadorov

Exempt list: Kakko, Kaut, Bowers, Broberg, Makar, Timmins

Protected Goalie: Hopefully Grubauer

Exposed to Meet Requirements: Kamenev, Nieto, and Graves

Lost: Kamenev or Varlamov (assuming Varlamov)

Here is a summary of the moves:

1. Extend Landeskog, McLeod, Kamenev, Makar, and Timmins

Here is the roster and cap situation:

Salary Cap 89,772,800
Line/Pairing Player Position Cap Hit Shoots Contract Through Extensions RFA/UFA Notes
1 MacKinnon C, RW 6,300,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
1 Landeskog LW 8,500,000 Left 2020/2021 2026/2027 UFA Extended 6 years
1 Rantanen RW 8,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Hayes C 7,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Kerfoot C, LW 3,000,000 Left 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Kakko RW 925,000 Right 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
3 Jost C, LW, RW 4,000,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA
3 Kaut LW, RW 925,000 Right 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
3 McLeod RW 2,750,000 Right 2020/2021 2024/2025 UFA Extended 4 years
4 Kamenev C 2,000,000 Left 2020/2021 2024/2025 UFA Extended 4 years
4 Bowers C, LW 925,000 Left 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
4 NJ Pick ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
N/A Nieto LW, RW 2,450,000 Left 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2021/2022 2021/2022 RFA
1 Girard LD 5,000,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
1 Johnson RD 6,000,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Zadorov LD 3,750,000 Left 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Makar RD 7,500,000 Right 2020/2021 2028/2029 UFA Extended 8 years
3 Broberg LD 925,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA
3 Timmins RD 2,850,000 Left 2020/2021 2024/2025 UFA Extended 4 years
N/A Graves LD 1,450,000 Left 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
1 Grubauer G 3,333,333 N/A 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA
2 Backup G 3,000,000 N/A 2021/2022 2021/2022 UFA

Landeskog MacKinnon Rantanen
Kerfoot Hayes Kakko
Kaut Jost McLeod
Bowers Kamenev NJ Pick

Girard Johnson
Zadorov Makar
Broberg Timmins

Grubauer
Backup

2022/2023

One thing not mentioned above is that the Avs draft Hunter Jones in the second round of the 2019 draft. When I heard his name and then looked into him, I became convinced that he would be a great player to target. Goaltending is a position that requires a lot of shots (most will be missed), but I am assuming this one pays off. If not, hopefully one of the other guys in the system ends up being at least a reliable backup option.

Other than this, there is little to do this year.

Here is a summary of the moves:

1. Extend Kakko, Kaut, Bowers, Grubauer, and cycle some depth guys

2. Hunter Jones makes the jump and replaces Varlamov

Here is the roster and cap situation:

Salary Cap 93,363,712
Line/Pairing Player Position Cap Hit Shoots Contract Through Extensions RFA/UFA Notes
1 MacKinnon C, RW 6,300,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
1 Landeskog LW 8,500,000 Left 2026/2027 2026/2027 UFA
1 Rantanen RW 8,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Hayes C 7,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Kerfoot C, LW 3,000,000 Left 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Kakko RW 8,000,000 Right 2021/2022 2027/2028 UFA Extended 6 years
3 Jost C, LW, RW 4,000,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA
3 Kaut LW, RW 3,250,000 Right 2021/2022 2026/2027 RFA Extended 5 years
3 McLeod RW 2,750,000 Right 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
4 Kamenev C 2,000,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
4 Bowers C, LW 1,450,000 Left 2021/2022 2024/2025 RFA Extended 3 years
4 NJ Pick ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
1 Girard LD 5,000,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
1 Johnson RD 6,000,000 Right 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Zadorov LD 3,750,000 Left 2022/2023 2022/2023 UFA
2 Makar RD 7,500,000 Right 2028/2029 2028/2029 UFA
3 Broberg LD 925,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA
3 Timmins RD 2,850,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
N/A ??? LD 950,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
1 Grubauer G 5,000,000 N/A 2021/2022 2025/2026 UFA Extended 4 years
2 Jones G 1,500,000 N/A 2023/2024 2023/2024 UFA Replaces Varlamov

Total Cost 92,075,000
Dead Money 0
Cap Space 1,288,712

Landeskog MacKinnon Rantanen
Kerfoot Hayes Kakko
Kaut Jost McLeod
Bowers Kamenev NJ Pick

Girard Johnson
Zadorov Makar
Broberg Timmins

Grubauer
Jones

2023/2024

Another change with this one is that I'm going an additional year out to see if Erik Johnson needs to go. In all posts past, getting rid of his salary has been how MacKinnon's raise is paid. Here there is a little more cap flexibility than most scenarios, so I wanted to see what things would look like if he stuck around. Note that I have left the pairings the same throughout, but I think it's likely that at some point EJ moves down the depth chart. This should help with his longevity and his salary.

One last summary of the moves made:

1. Extend MacKinnon, Kerfoot, Johnson, and Zadorov

And one last look at the roster and cap situation:

Salary Cap 97,098,260
Line/Pairing Player Position Cap Hit Shoots Contract Through Extensions RFA/UFA Notes
1 MacKinnon C, RW 11,500,000 Right 2022/2023 2030/2031 UFA Extended 8 years
1 Landeskog LW 8,500,000 Left 2026/2027 2026/2027 UFA
1 Rantanen RW 8,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Hayes C 7,750,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
2 Kerfoot C, LW 3,250,000 Left 2022/2023 2025/2026 UFA Extended 3 years
2 Kakko RW 8,000,000 Right 2027/2028 2027/2028 UFA
3 Jost C, LW, RW 4,000,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA
3 Kaut LW, RW 3,250,000 Right 2026/2027 2026/2027 RFA
3 McLeod RW 2,750,000 Right 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
4 Kamenev C 2,000,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
4 Bowers C, LW 1,450,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
4 NJ Pick ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
N/A ??? ??? 950,000 ??? 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
1 Girard LD 5,000,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 RFA
1 Johnson RD 4,250,000 Right 2022/2023 2025/2026 UFA Extended 3 years
2 Zadorov LD 4,500,000 Left 2022/2023 2025/2026 UFA Extended 3 years
2 Makar RD 7,500,000 Right 2028/2029 2028/2029 UFA
3 Broberg LD 925,000 Left 2023/2024 2023/2024 RFA
3 Timmins RD 2,850,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
N/A ??? LD 950,000 Left 2024/2025 2024/2025 UFA
1 Grubauer G 5,000,000 N/A 2025/2026 2025/2026 UFA
2 Jones G 1,500,000 N/A 2023/2024 2023/2024 UFA

Total Cost 96,525,000
Dead Money 0
Cap Space 573,260

Landeskog MacKinnon Rantanen
Kerfoot Hayes Kakko
Kaut Jost McLeod
Bowers Kamenev NJ Pick

Girard Johnson
Zadorov Makar
Broberg Timmins

Grubauer
Jones

Conclusion

Maybe this one isn't as eye-popping or dynamic as those in the past. I think it's more realistic though, and it also represents a scenario in which the Avs increase their draft capital rather than use it to acquire players. It's more of a happy medium between the ideals of those that want to win now and those that want to focus on the future. As always, thanks for reading!

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