Mile High Hockey - MHH's 2014-15 Avalanche Season Analysis: 10-Part SeriesColorado Avalanche and all hockey coverage in the Mile High statehttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50889/mhh-fav.png2014-10-03T08:00:03-06:00http://www.milehighhockey.com/rss/stream/65907742014-10-03T08:00:03-06:002014-10-03T08:00:03-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 10 - Final Standings
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<figcaption>Doug Pensinger</figcaption>
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<p>Our predictions for last season were (happily) way off the mark. How might we do this year?</p> <h4>What will be the Avalanche's final season record in points, standings and playoffs?</h4>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p>
</p>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 106</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 2nd in the Central</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance (make it/not make it; how far): Conference Finals</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Mike:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 96</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 8th</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance (make it/not make it; how far) Make it, first round exit in 6</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<div>94 points. In the playoffs as one of the wild cards, because lol western Canada teams, and out in the first round again. And honestly, I'd be really happy with that. I would not be surprised with a finish as low as conference 10, but, I think a 7/8 fight with Minnesota is in order. Here let's just, central:</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>1. Chi</div>
<div>2/3. Dal/stl</div>
<div>4/5. Min/col.</div>
<div>Our division could be easily the best in hockey this year, we got group of death'd. Thank goodness for the wild card thing.</div>
</div>
<div><br></div>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 98</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 4th in Central</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance (make it/not make it; how far): Make playoffs, win first round series if against STL or MIN, lose against CHI in either first or second round.</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 100 pts</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 7th in the West, 4th in the Central</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance (make it/not make it; how far): Make it as a wild card, lose in 2nd round</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 103</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standing: 5th in the West, just behind Chicago</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance: Yes, we will make it, and exit in the Conference Finals</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Angelique:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 100 points</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 3rd in the Central</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance (make it/not make it; how far): 1st round loss</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>earl:</h5>
<div>105 points, 2nd in Central. Win 1st round in 5 against the Wilds, take Chcago to 7 in the 2nd and maybe even win.</div>
</div>
<div><br></div>
<h5>Cole:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 97</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 7th in the West</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance: 1st round playoff loss</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Points: 99</span></li>
<li><span>Final Regular Season Standings: 5th in the West; 3rd in Central</span></li>
<li><span>Playoff Performance: 2nd round, lose in 7</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/10/3/6897487/nhl-2014-15-avalanche-analysis-final-standingsCheryl Bradley2014-10-02T07:57:59-06:002014-10-02T07:57:59-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 9 - Performance
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<figcaption>Doug Pensinger</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Time to get down to the nitty gritty and make some predictions!</p> <h4>Which players will be the Avalanche's leading scorer, lowest scorer, top defenseman, top penalty-taker, and overall game-changer?</h4>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer: MacKinnon 84 points</span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer: Forward (McLeod), Defense (Hejda)</span></li>
<li><span>Top D: Johnson for play, Barrie for points.</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: McLeod</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer: Iginla. I think he makes this team a force in what he brings. MacKinnon will still dominate every game, but I think the Avs’ "game" changes with Iginla on the team.</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Scorer Matt Duchene</span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Bordy obviously</span></li>
<li><span>Top D Barrie. I WANT TO BELIEVE</span></li>
<li><span>Pims: ignoring fights, Briere seems like a good bet to lead the team in minors.</span></li>
<li><span>Game changer Reto Berra. No. Let's go landeskog</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer: MacKinnon</span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer: Brad Stuart</span></li>
<li><span>Top D: EJ</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: McLeod</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer: MacKinnon</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer: MacKinnon, 30 G / 45 A / 75 Pts</span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer: (of 50+ GP) Stuart, 3G / 15 A / 18 pts</span></li>
<li><span>Top D: Barrie, 15 G / 30 A / 45 Pts</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: Cody McLeod's Fists of Anger, 125 PIM</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer: MacKinnon/Duchene for forwards, Johnson on defense, and Varly of course. Again.</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>mfured:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer: Nathan MacKinnon: Between his natural goal scoring abilities, and the points he's going to pick up from Iginla and Landeskog (yea yea, I'm making that assumption), I think he's going to edge Duchene out in points. </span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer: Patrick Bordeleau: When he comes back to play, his spot will be usurped by someone who's hungry, and any time that Bordy will actually get to play will be spent on the bench, or the penalty box, and not in the crease. </span></li>
<li><span>Top D: Erik Johnson: With a constant, defensively responsible partner, Johnson will be able to score on one end and be able to help out in the back end. He's easily my number one D on the team, and I think that he'll live up to it. </span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: Cody McLeod: Between trying to live up to his perceived role, and some frustration that I think he's going to feel this year, he'll get plenty of penalty minutes, both major and minor. </span></li>
<li><span>Game-Changer: Jarome Iginla: He's going to really be the spark that makes our offense come alive. The things he will be able to teach those kids, as well as the production he can put up on the ice, is going to be awesome. </span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Angelique:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer – Matt Duchene</span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer – Ryan Wilson</span></li>
<li><span>Top D – Erik Johnson</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs – Cody McLeod</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer – Nathan MacKinnon</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>earl:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Top scorer: Duchene</span></li>
<li><span>Low scorer: Cliche</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: Not Bordy</span></li>
<li><span>Game changer: EJ</span></li>
</ul>
<h5>Cole:</h5>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer: Matt Duchene for total points, Gabe Landeskog for goals. </span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer: Marc Andre Cliche</span></li>
<li><span>Top D: Erik Johnson</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: Cody McLeod</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer: Semyon Varlamov</span></li>
</ul>
<h5><font size="2"><span>Mike:</span></font></h5>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer Duchene</span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer Stuart</span></li>
<li><span>Top D Johnson</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs McLeod</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer MacK</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div><br></div>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<ul>
<li><span>Leading Scorer: Matt Duchene<br></span></li>
<li><span>Lowest Scorer: Cliche</span></li>
<li><span>Top D: Johnson</span></li>
<li><span>PIMs: McLeod</span></li>
<li><span>Game-changer: Iginla</span></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/a/nhl-season-preview-2014"><img src="http://apps.voxmedia.com/sbnation/banner-snippets/nhl-banner-snippet.jpg" alt="SB Nation 2014 NHL Preview"></a></p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/10/2/6889187/nhl-2014-15-avalanche-season-predictionsCheryl Bradley2014-10-01T08:33:36-06:002014-10-01T08:33:36-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 8-Breakouts, Letdowns
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<figcaption>Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Every year we have our good, bad and ugly on the ice. This season won't be any different.</p> <h4>Who's going to be the breakout player this season? Any surprises out of camp? What about let downs?</h4>
<h5>c6hor8: <br>Breakout: Barrie. I think he puts up 50+ points.</h5>
<p>Surprises out of camp: Hishon. I think he makes Roy keep him and consider using him on the 3rd line with Mitchell and Briere. I also think a defensive prospect makes Roy consider keeping him up: my two guesses are Siemens or Gersten.</p>
<p>Let down: O’Reilly. I think he dips to 20-25 goals. Still is stellar defensively and still puts up 60-70 points, but he’s not the leading scorer. I think Landy leads the team in goals.</p>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p>I think Holden is the most likely to be a letdown, especially offensively. His shooting % was Tanguay good last year, but as long as he continues to work on defense, I think he'll remain just fine overall even if his goals for takes a dip. I'm also optimistic about Redmond and hope he really helps bolster our 3rd pairing. Surprise out of camp? I think it might be Hishon. I'm not sure what role he'll fit into on the roster, but I bet he'll be there opening night.</p>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<p>Breakout players: I gotta follow my heart and go with Hishon. I think I called him out last year... and the year before... but he's really, finally, looking like the player that I was expecting him to be when I first started looking at him. If he can get some D on him, he'll be a good fill-in for a top 6 role, and he'll be fine rocking out as a bottom-6er. I think that Redmond is going to do well this year, too... I expect that some contingent of our D will get hurt, and Red will be the first guy called up (if he doesn't just make the team out of camp).</p>
<p>Surprises: Where the hell did Tomas Vincour come from? I mean, I know the story, but I didn't expect him to step it up in camp like he has. I think he will get significant playing time, and puts those skilled hands to work. Seeing Ryan Wilson stepping back into his comfort zone was surprising, even tho I was hoping he would make it there. I think that he can keep it up, and move back into rotation. Also, I think that Brad Stuart is going to surprise people this year. I think he'll be steady, durable, and put up pretty good numbers.</p>
<p>Disappointments: Nick Holden is going to be a downgrade this year. I mean, he'll be fine, which makes him better than Guenin, but I don't think we are going to see the kind of production out of him that we did last year with Redmond, Wilson, and Stuart more in the mix. Cody McLeod is going to continue to look a little out of place... not that he'll be an anchor on whatever line he's on, but by the end of the season, I'm going to look back on it and wish that Cody Mac had done better. Also (and I'm furiously knocking on wood and hoping I'm wrong), I think that I'll be disappointed in Alex Tanguay. But only because I have a bad feeling that he's going to get hurt again, and I'll have to spend a lot of the season wishing he was out there making plays.</p>
<h5>Angelique:</h5>
<p>If the Avs give him a chance, put my money on Joey Hishon making an impact.</p>
<h5>Earl:</h5>
<p>Breakout - The bottom 6. They will go from a black hole to a pleasant surprise this year and allow the top 6 and defense to be much more efficient and productive.</p>
<p>Surprise - Lake Erie will produce callups that actively help the club win games. Seriously, that's what they're there for.</p>
<p>Disappointment - Other than those that we already know are going to disappoint? Tough call, I have a feeling it's going to be Tanguay but I hope I'm wrong.</p>
<h5>Cole:</h5>
<p>I think Gabe Landeskog is going to have the best season of his career. This is the first time that Landeskog has worked with a truly offensive center (he's spent his whole career with two way guys in Stastny and O'Reilly). When we drafted Landeskog many pegged Jarome Iginla as the guy we wanted Landeskog to emulate, well now he's got a chance to learn from the Hall of Famer up close and I think it will make a big difference for his career.</p>
<p>I don't know if we can be let down by Daniel Briere since so few of us have expectations for the new Avalanche winger, but I just don't see him having a lot of success in the much tougher Western Conference. Also in this category is Nick Holden, but only on the offensive side of the puck. I think Holden's defensive game will grow and he'll be a better all-around player this season, but there's no way he scores near as many goals this season.</p>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p>-Breakout player: Zach Redmond</p>
<p>-Camp surprise: Jesse Winchester</p>
<p>-Letdowns: Stefan Elliott, Ryan Wilson</p>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<p>Breakout player: Joey Hishon. He may not make the roster out of camp, but once that inevitable top-9 injury hits, he'll be called up and will stick. For the record, I also think that Landeskog, Duchene and MacKinnon will all have career years, so you could say they'll be breakout players, too.</p>
<p>Camp surprise: Zach Redmond. I've heard way too many good things about this kid to overlook him, and I think he's going to be this year's Holden.</p>
<p>Biggest Disappointment: Ryan Wilson. It's going to break my heart to watch, but he's just not going to get "it" back.</p>
<p><br><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/a/nhl-season-preview-2014"><img alt="SB Nation 2014 NHL Preview" src="http://apps.voxmedia.com/sbnation/banner-snippets/nhl-banner-snippet.jpg"></a></p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/10/1/6879863/nhl-2014-15-avalanche-wilson-hishon-landeskog-redmondCheryl Bradley2014-09-30T08:11:05-06:002014-09-30T08:11:05-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 7 - Berra
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<figcaption>Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Berra's body of work in the NHL is questionable, something that has left Avs fans quite distraught.</p> <h4>Will Reto Berra be as bad as his record suggests?</h4>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p>I’ll be honest, people need to shut the fuck up about Berra. It’s absolutely asinine to me. I just don’t get it. Such a small amount of time played. Simply put, if he does actually suck then the Avs lost a 2nd round pick and Sami or Pickard take his spot. Or Roy finds another goalie. Not a big deal. Varly still gets 65-70 games.</p>
<h5>Sandie:</h5>
<p>Can Varly play all 98 games next season?</p>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<p>Well honestly Berra is reaching meme status so it's really hard to gauge what people actually expect him to do. He literally can't be worse than last year because the team would replace him if he was, that would be disgraceful, but yeah, this backup goalie situation looks really dire. The bright spots on his resume are all small samples. Stuff like Worlds. Long stretches he's Not Good.</p>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p>I fear he will be, yes. Truly, I just don't think Reto Berra is a very good goalie. My high hope for him is to be a .910 goaltender and make the Avs passable on Varly's off-days. My big fear is that Berra reminds of us the Brian Elliott days and the team has to make a drastic decision regarding a young player they've already invested so much into.</p>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p>Considering how MHH seems to think a cardboard cutout of our coach would be a better goalie, no, I don't think Berra will be as bad as we fear... but I'm still concerned. I think the team is going to give him a good shot at the gig first, and if he swims, great. But if he sinks, Roy has no problems replacing players that don't help him win. It's also possible one of the kids like Will, Pickard, or Aittokallio will challenge him for the job, or if worst comes to worst, we'll find a way to make do with a trade or a current UFA like Bryz, Brodeur, or Thomas. There are options, but my hope is that working with Allaire and Varly throughout the year will get him where he needs to be.</p>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<p>I... I don't know. I am not a Berra Believer, but I do trust that Francois Allaire did see something in the guy that he liked. After seeing him in camp (the little tiny bit that I saw him in camp), his movement is better, and his comportment is more composed, but that glove... Lets just say that I hope he doesn't start a significant number of games until he can be worked with more. I will continue to reserve judgment, but I do think we will see him be a capable, tho not stellar, back up goaltender.</p>
<h5>Angelique:</h5>
<p>The acquisition of Berra is one of the few head scratchers of the Sakic/Roy regime. I’m all for giving the benefit of the doubt, but I would have rathered the Avs held on to the second round pick and bring in a veteran behind Varly.</p>
<h5>Earl:</h5>
<p>Now that we've had a chance to see Berra a little in pre-season, I've downgraded my concerns to "troubling" from "freak out". Justin from the Goalie Guild had some positive things to say about him on the MHH podcast over the weekend, which reinforces that. Other than the 2 goals on 1st 2 shots deal in Anaheim he's been fairly solid for a backup so far.</p>
<p>I'd like to see him do well, he's such a goofball in interviews, we need more of that.</p>
<h5>Mike:</h5>
<p>You mean the CHL level goalie that everybody claims he is? yeah, he'll be better than that. Not sure he can win 8-10 games though. Depends on the D and he still has some serious adjusting to do to the North American ice and game.</p>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<p>I sure as hell hope not.</p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/9/30/6872639/mhhs-2014-15-avalanche-season-analysis-part-7-berraCheryl Bradley2014-09-29T08:06:30-06:002014-09-29T08:06:30-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 6 - Varlamov
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SLPJgbIBG9EL2ShcGZaxKqYjbfc=/0x110:2660x1883/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/40389874/451180096.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Harry How</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>He was a Vezina finalist and barely missed the top-three in voting for the Hart last season. If the Avs want to succeed, they absolutely need Varly to be that guy again.</p> <h4>Will Varlamov's play regress, and if so, by how much?</h4>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<p>Significantly. Like he won't suddenly suck, but I'd expect him to lose .09 SV% or more from last season. He will still be quite good. Just not superhuman.</p>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p>This is a toss up for me. I could argue that he could never keep up his numbers, but in the same way, people said Rask couldn’t. I just don’t know. I think his numbers dip a bit but not back to his average as so many black swans around here want to say. I think his average is somewhere between last years numbers and his past average. I think if the defense improves, he can post similar numbers and be back in the Vezina discussion.</p>
<h5>Sandie:</h5>
<p>Nope. In Varly I trust.</p>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p>I think it will but not by much. I think Varly is going to be a ~.922ish goalie this year, putting him back in the top 5 and serving as a big reason the Avs push for another division title and playoff appearance. I've always believed Varly to have elite ability and I believe its time he begin cementing his status as an elite netminder.</p>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p>Last year's NHL average for a 40+ GP goalie was .917. Varly's career average is .917. He managed a .927 last year while facing a just absurd number of shots. My guess is that he drops back into the .915 to .920 range, but my hope is that he faces fewer shots because of a better defense. So, overall, I think he'll let in around the same number of goals without needing to be perpetually superhuman.</p>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<p>Varly's play will regress a little. His play last year was pretty unsustainable, especially with the D what it was. I am hopeful (but not holding my breath) that the defense will keep some of that rubber away from the net this year, and that will help his numbers out, but we will have to see. Varly is a great goaltender, but leaning on him (and him alone) is a recipe for problems.</p>
<h5>Angelique:</h5>
<p>From what I have observed in training camp, I feel Varlamov’s play will be on par to that of last season. If there is a decline, it will be due to any nagging injuries that may occur (let’s not think of that ugly scenario).</p>
<h5>earl:</h5>
<p>I think Varly could easily back up his performance from last year but it is unlikely. The issue is how much it affects the team in the standings. There's a rule of thumb that says 3 goals equals a win or a point or something, which is convenient for sportswriters but isn't necessarily true. If the team, defense and especially the forwards, can make his job a little easier then his regression won't be that painful.</p>
<h5>Mike:</h5>
<p>A little. Probably 0.905-0.910 S%, about 5-8 fewer wins. I'm just hoping for an injury free season, honestly.</p>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<p>If it drops off, it won't do so significantly. I've always believed that Varlamov had the talent to be an elite goaltender in the league. Working with Allaire seems to have made it happen. I think we might even see another Vezina bid coming his way in the not so distant future. He's one of those freaky 'tenders who does better with more shots, so the fact the Avs will still give up a lot of shots against won't force a goaltending regression.</p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/9/29/6863305/nhl-2014-15-avalanche-varlamov-analysisCheryl Bradley2014-09-26T08:15:43-06:002014-09-26T08:15:43-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 5 - The Defense
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<figcaption>David Banks-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The D remains the soft underbelly of the Avs, and yet last season's was enough to get a Central Division banner.</p> <h4>Will the defense be any better than it was last season?</h4>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<p>The defense will be almost exactly the same which will be amusing as everyone whines about how much worse it is. WHOA #hot #take #hottake</p>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p>Will the defense be any better than it was last season? Johnson is a beast and I think he improves; especially with Stuart as a steady partner because Hejda can play with Barrie. I think Barrie improves as he matures and even if Hejda slips, Holden is there to take his place. I also think the Avs depth at defense of Holden, Guenin, Redmond, Gervais, Elliott, and even Siemens or hell Gersten at this point offers much better options in the 3rd pairing than Guenin-Sarich.</p>
<h5>Mike:</h5>
<p>Can't be worse, right? Right? Seriously, Roy and Co. saw depth as the issue here and addressed that. I'd be disappointed if we didn't get a dynamic rookie injection though because I think there's way more upside on the backend than in years past.</p>
<h5>Sandie:</h5>
<p>Yes, I do... again I've been consuming Kool-Aid. But the defensive core were young and even a few of the "older" players were fairly inexperienced. Roy had them buy into his system and it worked... somewhat. Having Roy and Foote build on what they taught last season will certainly help.</p>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<p>I think the D will be better than last season. Even though (like I said in question 1), Brad Stuart is not what I hoped and prayed for, he is still decent at hockey. I hope that a change of scenery will reignite him, and he will be strong for us. I don't know how the D pairings are going to turn out, but I have always thought that Stuart would hang out with EJ on that top pairing, letting Hejda absorb some of Barrie's fluctuations and pushing everyone down a spot (addition by subtraction...?). I think we are going to start to see some things coming together on D this year, like we saw them come together on Offense last year. We aren't set yet, but we're getting there.</p>
<h5>earl:</h5>
<p>The starting defense 1-6 will be better than last year. Is Stuart the optimum #2? No, but to me the #2 isn't your 2nd best defenseman, he's the guy that complements the #1 and lets him do what he does best. Same thing goes for the #4. If Hejda's skills allow Barrie to make plays then we're all good.</p>
<p>The main battle in camp will be to see who Holden gets paired with. It could be damn near anyone as far as I can see. The second battle is to stay on the Avs roster. Also could be anyone. We will be sending a couple of good defensemen to Lake Erie, which is nice to have. Other teams might feel the same way and claim someone on waivers. That's not nice to have.</p>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p>I believe it will be, yes, albeit not significantly so. Hejda is a year older, EJ should be in his dominant prime now, Barrie should be fine, and Stuart, Holden, and everyone else who plays along the blue line are really wild cards. The team brought in a bevy of talented players as they continue to wait for top prospects like Chris Bigras and Duncan Siemens to make the leap to the NHL and I think it will prove to be a more talented and effective group than last year.</p>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p>Yes. From what people are saying, Stuart looks to be at least a serviceable top 4 defenseman. Considering the question mark we had playing with Barrie all last season, this is a definite upgrade that helps clarify some roles. It also sounds like Redmond was a great find that should fill out our 3rd pairing, and Duncan Siemens is nearing call-up ready. I still wouldn't call the corps "good", but it should be more adequate than last year's for sure.</p>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<p>Absolutely it will be better. More experience, less Guenin. What's not to like?</p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/9/26/6849447/mhhs-2014-15-avalanche-season-analysis-part-5-the-defenseCheryl Bradley2014-09-25T07:59:32-06:002014-09-25T07:59:32-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 4 - Possession
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7EICsAQaFfn7xP4lUrqh_1dfQcY=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/39991568/20140922_mje_aK6_173.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>We all know the Avs sucked at possessing the puck last season, yet they still won.</p> <h4>Will the Avalanche's possession numbers improve in 2014-15? Why or why not?</h4>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<p>I don't really know. Honestly. They're really likely to be about the same. I know the team is keeping track of possession time, which is what Corsi et al are proxies for, and that what Roy has said in the past lines up with the numbers formerly at extra skater (PBUI). So they should be motivated to try things to make it better. But they've also replaced good possession personnel with bad, so overall, that will probably be a wash.</p>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p>I think Roy solves the issue in small steps. When Sacco first coached the Avs played great until teams figured out how to stop the run and gun system. Roy showed adjustments later in the season where he adjusted his neutral zone break out and trap. Injuries to Mitchell and Duchene really hurt the center depth, but prior to that I saw some great adjustments. I think Roy focuses on the same methodical breakouts but brings back his forwards more on defense to prevent shots and break up plays; this falls a lot on Duchene, MacKinnon, and Mitchell. I don’t think they change the shot differential entirely, but I think the gap lessens as the team learns to focus on possession a bit more. As well, I think having more balances lines with Iginla and Landy as power forwards, Tanguay and O’Reilly as more finesse players, and Duchene and MacKinnon as all-star centers allows the lines to more fluidly keep possession because they all play different types of roles.</p>
<h5>Mike:</h5>
<p>Prolly. I think Iggy will help the team get more possession time and depend less on the rush. I think the bottom 4 blueliners will be better in breakouts and I think a revamped 3rd and 4th line will be able to do more than tread water in their own end for 10 minutes a night.</p>
<h5>Sandie:</h5>
<p>I hope so. Oh man, do I ever hope so...</p>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<p>Possession. Our possession numbers will improve. I have no concrete reason why I say that, its just a feeling. With our young kids getting better, and a little bit more reliable D in the back end, I think we can't help but be better. Even losing the control that Stastny brought to the table, I think we will continue to improve, perhaps slowly, but I'll take improvement any day.</p>
<h5>Earl:</h5>
<p>Possession: Will it improve? Sure. I think the Avs will always be "PDO Darlings" because of how they play, how Varly plays and their tendency to get leads early. If they get to the point where their zone exits rival their zone entries with possession they will be downright scary. Like 6-0 every night kind of scary.</p>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p>I have no feeling on this either way. They either will or they won't. The removal of guys like Cliche and Guenin from the lineup should be helpeful in that regard, especially if they're replaced by guys like Winchester and Redmond but I'm not sure how it'll go for the Avs in the fancystats column.</p>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p>I mean, they can't get much worse, right? Hopefully the Avs D has upgraded just enough that they'll have less trouble obtaining the puck AND making a strong outlet pass to the transitioning forwards. It'd also be awesome if they learned how to keep the puck in at the point on the cycle. Losing Stastny (previously one of our best possession players) is going to hurt of course, but if the team finds a way to correct those other two areas through system or personnel changes/upgrades, I think the numbers will largely take care of themselves</p>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<p>I think two things are going to happen. First, the numbers will improve, but not in any massive, 100%-turnaround sort of way. Second, I think the Avs will continue to win like last year despite possession numbers that still aren't stellar. I think people are going to realize that someone coaching from a background in net has a different take on how to best prevent being scored against.</p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/9/25/6843605/nhl-avalanche-2014-2015-season-analysis-puck-possessionCheryl Bradley2014-09-24T08:01:04-06:002014-09-24T08:01:04-06:002014-15 Season Analysis Part 3: Tyson Barrie
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r3SeKIrIDgLYBWP5rKjixJpLXS0=/0x19:4000x2686/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/39847272/480996755.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Doug Pensinger</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The young defenseman went from demotion to domination. Was it real or a flash in the pan?</p> <h4>Will Tyson Barrie maintain the play he established last season, or was he over-achieving?</h4>
<h5>SteveHouse:</h5>
<p>You can just paste in I WANT TO BELIEVE.jpg here because I've been a big believer in Tyson since his world junior performance, he seems by the numbers to make his teammates better, and man I just hope he doesn't end up over his head by default because the D is bad and get buried. Because I can definitely see that happening. But that doesn't mean he was overachieving and I totally want to believe the awesome isn't imaginary.</p>
<h5>c6hor8:</h5>
<p>I think he keeps up his point production and makes up for the likely dip in production from Holden. I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks 50 points.</p>
<h5>Mike:</h5>
<p>Slight over-achieve and much more likely to see a sophomore slump but won't fall off the planet (I know he's been around longer, it's just the analogy...).</p>
<h5>Sandie:</h5>
<p>He's always had moments of brilliance. Unfortunately he was just hitting his groove when he got injured. I've been drinking the Kool-Aid lately so I'm going to go with "maintain or slightly higher" than last season. I expect Roy will start leaning on him a bit more this year.</p>
<h5>mfured20:</h5>
<p>I love me some Tyson Barrie. That being said, I would really love it if he because a better defenseman. If he can do that, the sky is the limit for that kid. Just... dude. Stop that guy with the puck. Use your stick, use your shoulder, pinch him against the boards or just slow him up enough to get some help. Also, be sure to keep scoring.</p>
<h5>Earl:</h5>
<p>I think the Lake Erie fans have seen the last of him.</p>
<h5>AJ:</h5>
<p>I think Barrie will continue to be the quiet catalyst on the blue line behind EJ and is this team's answer to John-Michael Liles. He should be good for a 40+ point season as a captain of the power play and a very good ES point producer. I'm not sold on him scoring as many goals again but I think his points will ultimately make a jump.</p>
<h5>Andi:</h5>
<p>For the sake of all of our sanity, I hope he plays as well as he did last year. Our blueline - while stronger - is still fairly weak, so we need Barrie continuing to be a cornerstone if we want to even make the playoffs again. I don't think he was playing above his head last season, but I also think having a veteran partner like Stuart or Hejda could allow him to take his game to the next level. Just like with Mac, there might be some bumps in the road this year, but I don't think this coaching staff will let him derail completely. The second pairing is his, and it will be interesting watching him grow into that role.</p>
<h5>Cheryl:</h5>
<p>He'll pick up right where he left off offensively, but we'll see some improvement on D. Getting a partner better than Guenin will do wonders for him.</p>
https://www.milehighhockey.com/2014/9/24/6838327/mhhs-2014-15-avalanche-season-analysis-part-3-tyson-barrieCheryl Bradley